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What happened with ALMS today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Investment outlook

ALMS in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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Company

Company overview

Alumis is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on envudeucitinib, known as envu, for plaque psoriasis and systemic lupus erythematosus. This is its most advanced drug candidate. It also develops A-005 for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. None of its products is approved for sale, and it has no product-sales revenue.

All its revenue comes from its agreement with Kaken Pharmaceutical, with license fees accounting for most and development services providing the rest. Kaken holds exclusive rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize envu for dermatology indications in Japan, while Alumis retains rights outside that grant and handles global dermatology development. Kaken paid an upfront fee and contributes to development costs; further milestone payments and royalties depend on contractual milestones and future Japanese sales.

Alumis primarily funds its work by raising capital and needs additional financing to continue development. Its path to product-sales revenue depends heavily on gaining approval for envu and bringing it to market, alone or with partners. Even after approval, sales would depend on physicians prescribing it and government and private insurers covering treatment at adequate reimbursement levels.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ALMS’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
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Moat

ALMS says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Alumis’s prospects rest mainly on developing its pipeline and winning approvals, with Kaken funding envudeucitinib development and holding its Japanese dermatology commercialization rights.

  • Takeda’s zasocitinib is a direct development rival to Alumis’s envudeucitinib: both are oral drugs targeting TYK2 to treat psoriasis. Watch zasocitinib’s clinical results as a comparison for Alumis’s candidate, rather than Takeda’s broader prescription-drug sales.

  • Bristol Myers Squibb’s Sotyktu sets a clinical and commercial benchmark for Alumis’s envudeucitinib: it already sells a TYK2 inhibitor approved for adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. Sotyktu’s treatment results and sales provide a reference for the market Alumis hopes to enter.

  • Johnson & Johnson’s icotrokinra competes for the same psoriasis patients as Alumis’s envudeucitinib, although its oral candidate targets the IL-23 receptor rather than TYK2. Its psoriasis trial results are the relevant signal for Alumis, not Johnson & Johnson’s wider prescription-medicine business.

  • Zenas BioPharma’s ZB022 competes with Alumis’s TYK2 development programs, envudeucitinib and A-005. ZB022 is designed to reach the brain, making its development results particularly relevant to A-005, which Alumis is evaluating for neurological and peripheral diseases.

  • Oruka Therapeutics is developing psoriasis antibodies that compete for the same patients as Alumis’s oral envudeucitinib. Watch its IL-23-targeting ORKA-001 and IL-17-targeting ORKA-002 trial results; Oruka has no approved products or revenue yet.

  • AbbVie’s immunology medicines already compete in psoriasis, and its developing long-acting IL-23 inhibitor could add another challenge to Alumis’s envudeucitinib. Watch the Phase 1 study it announced plans to start in 2026 for the long-acting IL-23p19 candidate.

  • Eli Lilly’s simepdekinra is another oral psoriasis candidate competing with Alumis’s envudeucitinib, but it targets IL-17A rather than TYK2. Its psoriasis clinical results offer a comparison between the two oral treatment approaches.

  • Amgen competes with Alumis in both psoriasis and thyroid eye disease, where it already sells Tepezza and Alumis is developing lonigutamab. Tepezza’s Phase 3 wearable subcutaneous formulation is worth watching alongside Alumis’s subcutaneously delivered antibody.

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  • Viridian Therapeutics’ veligrotug and elegrobart compete in thyroid eye disease with Alumis’s lonigutamab, an antibody targeting IGF-1R. Watch their development and approval progress: Viridian warns that rivals could win approval first or offer more effective or less costly treatments.

  • Novartis overlaps with two Alumis programs: it competes in psoriasis, where Alumis is developing envudeucitinib, and is developing TOUR006 for thyroid eye disease against lonigutamab. Its ongoing Phase 2b study of subcutaneous TOUR006 is the concrete development to watch for Alumis’s eye-disease program.

  • Can-Fite BioPharma’s Piclidenoson competes for the psoriasis patients targeted by Alumis’s envudeucitinib. Can-Fite has granted Kyongbo Pharm exclusive South Korean distribution rights, with payments tied to milestones and finished-drug supply, making that agreement a concrete commercial foothold to watch.

Agenda

in 10 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. earningsBMY

    Bristol Myers Squibb’s report will show how its approved oral TYK2 drug Sotyktu is selling, giving Alumis a market reference for its psoriasis candidate.

  2. Time to be announced

    Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited earningsTAK

    If Takeda’s report updates zasocitinib’s clinical progress, readers can compare this oral TYK2 psoriasis candidate with Alumis’s envudeucitinib.

in 15 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Amgen Inc earningsAMGN

    Amgen’s report can show Tepezza sales and the progress of its under-the-skin formulation, giving Alumis’s lonigutamab a market and delivery benchmark in thyroid eye disease.

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. earningsVRDN

    If Viridian Therapeutics’ report updates development or approval progress for its thyroid eye disease candidates, it will show how far potential rivals to lonigutamab have advanced.

in 24 daysThu, Nov 12

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Alumis Inc. earningsThis company

    Alumis has no approved products, so this report will show whether Kaken collaboration revenue is offsetting some research costs and how quickly the company is using cash.

in 30 daysWed, Nov 18

  1. Time to be announced

    Zenas BioPharma, Inc. earningsZBIO

    If Zenas BioPharma’s report updates ZB022, it will show how a TYK2 candidate designed to reach the brain is progressing against Alumis’s A-005.