ZG in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Zillow Group operates U.S. housing websites and apps where people search for homes to buy or rent and connect with agents and financing providers. Residential services generate most of its revenue. Agents pay for advertising through Zillow Premier Agent to receive customer connections, with their share of connections tied to their share of advertising purchased in a local market. Under Zillow Preferred, participating agents instead pay when a referred customer closes a transaction. The company also sells professional software, including Follow Up Boss.
Rentals is its next-largest revenue source. Zillow Rentals sells advertising and leasing tools to property managers and landlords seeking tenants, and charges renters for rental applications. Zillow Home Loans adds a smaller business: it originates mortgages and generally sells them to financial institutions and other mortgage buyers rather than keeping them long term.
The business depends on attracting people who are ready to move, turning their interest into customer connections and completed transactions, and keeping professionals willing to spend. Housing availability, affordability and mortgage rates influence that activity. Zillow also needs continuing access to listings from brokers, multiple listing services and other providers. Its use of those listings must follow local service rules and data-license terms, while regulated transaction services require licenses that must be maintained.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Zillow depends on home transactions and property-manager advertising; watch Realtor.com and Redfin, absent here, as both residential-search rivals and rental-listing syndication partners.
CoStar Group's Homes.com and Apartments.com compete with Zillow for people searching for homes and for advertising budgets from real estate agents and rental property managers.
Compass and Zillow both depend on U.S. home sales: Compass keeps part of its agents' sales commissions, while Zillow charges agents for advertising and completed transactions. Compass's home-sale commission revenue is worth watching for changes in the sales volumes and prices that also matter to Zillow.
Opendoor Technologies and Zillow are exposed to the same U.S. home-sales market, but Opendoor buys homes from sellers and resells them to buyers, while Zillow collects agent advertising and closing-linked fees. Watch Opendoor's home resales for a view of the housing activity behind Zillow's transaction-linked business.
AGNT, Inc. and Zillow both earn money around completed home sales: AGNT collects brokerage commissions and pays agents a share, while Zillow charges agents advertising and performance fees. AGNT's residential commission revenue reflects the home-sale volumes and prices that also shape Zillow's market.
First American Financial and Zillow both earn revenue when home purchases close: First American sells title insurance and handles closings, while Zillow collects agent performance fees and earns purchase-mortgage revenue. Watch First American's title premiums and closing fees for evidence of completed transactions, rather than just interest in buying a home.
AppFolio and Zillow sell to the same residential property-manager market: AppFolio supplies property-management software, while Zillow sells rental advertising and leasing tools. Watch managers' adoption of AppFolio's subscriptions and services such as tenant screening and electronic payments for their appetite to spend on digital rental operations.
Better Home & Finance competes with Zillow Home Loans by lending to homebuyers and then selling those mortgages to loan purchasers. Better's purchase-mortgage production is the relevant comparison for Zillow, whose loan growth in 2025 came primarily from purchase originations.
LendingTree competes with Zillow's mortgage marketplace for borrowers and lenders' spending on prospective customers: it sends consumer requests to providers, while Zillow charges mortgage professionals per lead. Watch LendingTree's mortgage marketplace rather than its consumer-credit or insurance businesses when assessing pressure on Zillow's mortgage advertising.
Housing Starts (Sep)
For Zillow, new-home construction measures building activity, and new-home sales track purchases of newly built homes; both can affect builder demand for Zillow’s community- or impression-priced marketing and the home transactions that generate For Sale revenue.
Expected1.31MLast release1.275M
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 1.31M estimate, it is above the previous 1.275M. If the readings are above estimates, more building or new-home sales may increase builders’ need to market communities through Zillow and add transactions that generate For Sale revenue.
If it comes in below expectations
If the readings are below estimates, less building or fewer new-home sales may reduce builders’ need to market communities through Zillow and limit transactions that generate For Sale revenue.
First American Financial Corporation earningsFAF
First American's report can show whether home purchases are closing, not just attracting interested buyers—a distinction that matters to Zillow Group's closing-linked fees and purchase mortgages.
Read First American's title premiums and closing fees alongside any indication of completed transaction volume. If more completed purchases are driving those revenues, the market backdrop is more supportive of Zillow Group's closing-linked fees and purchase mortgages. Weak closing activity would mean buyer interest is translating into fewer transactions.
AppFolio, Inc. earningsAPPF
AppFolio's report will show whether residential property managers are still paying for digital operations, a customer budget Zillow Group also seeks for rental ads and leasing tools.
Look for changes in property-management subscriptions and services such as tenant screening and electronic payments. Growth would suggest managers are still spending on digital operations, a supportive backdrop for Zillow Group's rental ads and leasing tools. Weakness would point to more cautious budgets, but would not by itself prove Zillow's sales are falling.
CoStar Group Inc earningsCSGP
CoStar's report can show whether Homes.com and Apartments.com are attracting more home seekers and advertisers, putting greater pressure on Zillow Group's visits and real estate ad budgets.
If the report breaks out Homes.com and Apartments.com, read audience traction alongside related advertising revenue. Strength in both would suggest agents and property managers have a more compelling alternative, intensifying Zillow Group's competition for visits and ad spending. Weak traction would offer less evidence of that pressure.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For Zillow, the Fed’s policy-rate decision tracks the cost of borrowing across the economy; through mortgage rates and affordability, it can change home-purchase activity, demand for mortgage services and Zillow Home Loans’ originations.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the policy rate is above the estimate, higher borrowing costs may push mortgage rates up and make homes less affordable, weighing on purchase activity, mortgage-service demand and Zillow Home Loans originations.
If it comes in below expectations
If the policy rate is below the estimate, lower borrowing costs may ease mortgage-rate and affordability pressures, supporting purchase activity, mortgage-service demand and Zillow Home Loans originations.
LendingTree, Inc. earningsTREE
LendingTree's report will show whether borrowers are using its mortgage marketplace and lenders are paying for its leads, a budget pool Zillow Group also seeks.
Read LendingTree's mortgage-marketplace revenue alongside borrower inquiry or application activity, if disclosed, to judge whether demand or monetization is changing. Growth in both would mean lenders are competing more for purchase-borrower leads, adding pressure to Zillow Group's mortgage advertising. Weakness in both could ease competition but may also signal softer mortgage demand.
ZILLOW GROUP INC CLASS A earningsThis company
Zillow Group's report will show whether For Sale revenue is capturing more of existing-home transaction value without gross margin giving way to the cost of acquiring listings and leads.
Read For Sale revenue per TTV alongside gross margin. TTV is existing-home sales multiplied by the average sale price. A higher share with stable or improving margin means Zillow Group is capturing more revenue from transactions without costs swallowing the gain. A lower share alongside a falling margin means both monetization and the platform's profit cushion are under pressure.
Better Home & Finance Holding Company earningsBETR
Better Home & Finance's report will show its purchase-mortgage production, offering a read on the competitive market in which Zillow Home Loans operates.
Read Better Home & Finance's purchase originations alongside whether it can sell the loans it makes. Rising originations with loan sales proceeding smoothly would show another digital lender expanding in purchase mortgages, amid active borrower and financing demand. Falling production or difficulty selling loans would constrain that expansion. These figures alone cannot establish a change in Zillow Home Loans' share.