Stock daily read

What happened with UTZ today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

UTZ in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Utz Brands sells potato chips, tortilla chips, pretzels and other salty snacks under brands including Utz, On The Border, Zapp’s and Boulder Canyon. Branded salty snacks account for most of its revenue, and almost all sales are in the United States.

The company reaches shoppers mainly through retailers such as supermarkets, mass merchants, warehouse clubs and convenience stores. It sells products directly to retailers or to independent operators and distributors that resell them to stores. Some shipments go to retailers’ warehouses for onward distribution; others go straight to stores through routes managed almost entirely by independent operators. Utz also sells snacks online, but store and warehouse deliveries are its main revenue channels.

The business depends on consumers buying its snacks repeatedly and retailers keeping them on shelves. A small group of large retail customers supplies a substantial share of sales, with one customer contributing a meaningful share on its own. Customers place purchase orders rather than commit to buying fixed volumes. Utz must also meet food-manufacturing, safety and labeling requirements, which govern how it makes and markets its products.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in UTZ’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

UTZ says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • PepsiCo’s Lay’s, Doritos and Cheetos fight Utz’s chips and cheese snacks for U.S. shoppers and retail shelf space. Watch these snack brands’ pricing and promotions for signs of the pressure Utz faces in stores.

  • Campbell’s competes with Utz for snack purchases through Cape Cod and Kettle Brand potato chips, Late July tortilla chips and Snyder’s of Hanover pretzels. Its U.S. retail Snacks business is the part to watch for competition with Utz, rather than its soup business.

  • Hershey competes with Utz through SkinnyPop popcorn, Pirate’s Booty cheese snacks and Dot’s pretzels, not just through its better-known chocolate business. Its North America Salty Snacks results cover U.S. snack sales and are the relevant readout for Utz’s competing products.

  • Conagra’s Angie’s BOOMCHICKAPOP competes with Utz’s ready-to-eat popcorn for U.S. snack shoppers and retail shelf space. Watch news on that brand’s products and pricing rather than treating Conagra’s broader Grocery & Snacks results as a popcorn-only measure.

  • General Mills’ savory and grain snacks compete with Utz’s salty snacks for consumers’ spending and retailers’ shelf space. Its snack products’ pricing and promotions matter more to this rivalry than results from its pet food or other food categories.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s interest-rate decision signals the cost of borrowing across the economy; for Utz, higher rates can raise interest on its variable-rate debt and leave less cash flow after debt service.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Utz Brands, Inc. earningsThis company

    Utz Brands makes money selling salty snacks to retailers, and this report will show whether branded-snack sales growth can outweigh price concessions and the cost of making and delivering the products.

  2. Time to be announced

    The Hershey Company earningsHSY

    Hershey's North America Salty Snacks business includes products that compete with Utz Brands for shoppers and shelf space, so its report will show how strong that demand is.