Stock daily read

What happened with UI today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

UI in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Ubiquiti’s UniFi products let businesses build and manage Wi-Fi and wired networks, alongside security cameras and door-access systems, through a unified software interface. Enterprise products generate most of its revenue. Its smaller service-provider business supplies equipment for delivering broadband and connecting networks, with UISP software helping wireless internet providers manage their networks and bill subscribers. The company earns principally from selling hardware, rather than charging for software.

Distributors buy its equipment for resale and account for most revenue; Ubiquiti also sells through online retailers and its own webstores. A limited group of distributors contributes a significant share of sales. These distributors make no long-term purchase commitments and provide limited information about end-customer demand, making production planning harder.

Ubiquiti outsources manufacturing mainly to contractors in Vietnam and China. Supply depends on a small group of component suppliers, including Qualcomm and Broadcom as the sole sources of certain chipsets for some products. Most products use radio spectrum that does not require a license, so their use depends on continued access to that spectrum and compliance with radio rules. Export controls and sanctions also restrict sales of some products to certain countries.

Read allShow less
Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in UI’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

UI says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Ubiquiti’s results depend chiefly on enterprise networking demand, but privately held TP-Link and MikroTik add competitive pressure that this list does not show.

  • NETGEAR competes with Ubiquiti’s UniFi for business spending on Wi-Fi and Ethernet switches. Watch NETGEAR’s Enterprise business serving small and medium enterprises, rather than its home and mobile connectivity sales.

  • Extreme Networks and Ubiquiti both depend on enterprises replacing and expanding managed wired and wireless networks. Extreme’s equipment sales are the closest demand comparison; its revenue also includes software subscriptions and maintenance contracts.

  • Cisco competes with Ubiquiti for enterprise purchases of wireless networks, switches and routers. Those products offer a more relevant comparison for UniFi demand than Cisco’s broader security, collaboration and observability businesses.

  • HPE’s Aruba and Juniper businesses compete with Ubiquiti’s UniFi for enterprise Wi-Fi and switching purchases. Watch HPE’s Networking results for this rivalry, rather than its Cloud & AI business.

  • Vistance Networks competes with Ubiquiti through RUCKUS, which sells enterprises Wi-Fi access points, switches and network management tools. RUCKUS sales—not Aurora’s cable and video network business—are the relevant signal, particularly in campuses, hotels and other high-density settings.

  • Fortinet competes with Ubiquiti for enterprise wireless networks and switches, while combining networking with security. Watch its secure-networking offerings for pressure on UniFi’s Wi-Fi, switches and cybersecurity gateways.

  • Arista Networks competes with Ubiquiti’s UniFi in enterprise campus switches and wireless access points, but also sells extensively to cloud customers. Its campus wired and wireless business is therefore a closer comparison for Ubiquiti than its overall sales.

  • Ubiquiti depends on Broadcom as the only supplier of certain chips built into its networking products. Disruptions in those chip supplies could hold up Ubiquiti’s production, while higher component prices could squeeze margins if it cannot pass them to customers.

Show 5 moreShow less
  • Qualcomm sells chips to equipment manufacturers and is Ubiquiti’s only source for certain chipsets used in its products. Watch availability and pricing of those components: switching suppliers can require substantial product redesign and manufacturing changes.

  • Calix competes with Ubiquiti for broadband providers’ purchases of access equipment, subscriber Wi-Fi and operating software, including purchases by wireless internet providers. Its local-provider business is the useful comparison for Ubiquiti’s service-provider products, rather than UniFi enterprise networks.

  • Ubiquiti’s Wave products depend on Peraso as their sole supplier of chips that carry wireless data at 60 GHz, known as mmWave integrated circuits. Peraso’s supply of those chips matters directly to Wave, which broadband providers use for long-range urban and suburban wireless networks.

  • Ceragon Networks competes with Ubiquiti for operators’ purchases of equipment that carries traffic between network sites, or wireless backhaul. Watch wireless providers’ spending to expand transport capacity—the demand relevant to Ubiquiti’s airFiber products.

  • Aviat Networks and Ubiquiti compete to sell broadband and internet providers wireless links connecting two sites or one site to several others. Aviat’s transport and access sales to those providers are the relevant comparison, rather than its sales to private-network operators.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Extreme Networks earningsEXTR

    Extreme Networks' report will show what enterprises are spending on managed wired and wireless networks, a demand comparison for Ubiquiti's UniFi gear.

in 14 daysMon, Nov 2

  1. Time to be announced

    CALIX, INC. earningsCALX

    Calix's report will show what local broadband providers are buying in access equipment, subscriber Wi-Fi and operating software, a demand signal for Ubiquiti's service-provider business.

in 15 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Aviat Networks, Inc. earningsAVNW

    Aviat Networks' report will show what broadband and internet providers are buying for wireless links between sites, a demand signal for Ubiquiti's airFiber products.

in 18 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Ubiquiti Inc. earningsThis company

    Ubiquiti's report will show whether sales of its enterprise networking gear can keep growing while the business holds the gross margin it earns on those sales.

in 21 daysMon, Nov 9

  1. Time to be announced

    Peraso, Inc. earningsPRSO

    Peraso's report will offer clues about its 60 GHz wireless-chip business; Ubiquiti's Wave products depend on Peraso for these chips.