Stock daily read

What happened with TWLO today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TWLO in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Businesses use Twilio to add messaging, calls, email and identity verification to their customer-facing applications. Developers connect these functions through programmable interfaces called APIs, rather than building the communications connections themselves. Its customers range from small businesses to large enterprises.

Messaging supplies most of Twilio’s revenue. Businesses generally pay for messages sent or received and minutes of calls, so revenue depends mainly on how much customers use the platform. Email and Segment primarily earn subscription fees. Segment brings customer data together into profiles that businesses can use to choose audiences and personalize communications. Most usage-based customers have no long-term financial commitment and can reduce or stop usage without penalty.

Twilio relies on telecommunications networks and email providers to deliver communications, pays network fees, and hosts most of its cloud infrastructure on Amazon Web Services. Service availability and provider charges therefore matter to the business. Telecommunications licensing and rules governing phone numbers restrict where and how it can offer services, while privacy and cross-border data-transfer requirements constrain how it handles customer data.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TWLO’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TWLO says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Twilio’s results depend chiefly on business messaging and voice usage and carrier delivery costs; key programmable-communications rivals to watch, Sinch and Vonage, are absent from this list.

  • Bandwidth Inc. competes for the businesses that pay Twilio to embed calling and messaging in their applications through software interfaces, or APIs. Its programmable messaging revenue is the closest comparison for Twilio’s largest revenue line, Messaging.

  • 8x8, Inc. competes with Twilio for businesses buying tools to communicate with customers, both through software interfaces and cloud contact centers. Adoption of its combined contact-center and communications platform is worth watching for competition facing Twilio’s customer-interaction tools.

  • Braze, Inc. competes with Twilio for brands paying to turn their own customer data into personalized messages across channels. Watch customers adding channels and sending more messages on Braze: those are concrete signs of spending on the engagement software both companies sell.

  • Klaviyo, Inc. competes with Twilio’s marketing and customer-data software by selling businesses subscriptions that combine consumer profiles with personalized email and text campaigns. Its retail and eCommerce customer base is a useful place to watch demand for that combination.

  • FIVE9, INC. competes for businesses buying customer-service software rather than building digital service centers with Twilio’s tools. Its cloud platform manages voice, chat and email interactions, making customer adoption of that platform relevant to Twilio’s service-center opportunity.

  • RINGCENTRAL, INC. competes with Twilio for business customer-service spending through its cloud contact-center products. Watch RingCX and RingCentral Contact Center subscriptions, rather than its broader communications business, for the overlap with Twilio’s digital engagement-center software.

  • Salesforce competes for businesses buying Twilio’s customer engagement software and Segment platform through its marketing, customer-data and service products.

  • Twilio depends on Amazon’s AWS to host most of its platform and pays for the cloud capacity it uses, while Amazon also competes by selling businesses tools to build cloud contact centers. AWS outages or changes to service terms can reach Twilio directly through disrupted customer access or a costly migration.

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  • Sprinklr, Inc. competes with Twilio’s engagement software for enterprise service and marketing teams managing customer interactions across voice and digital channels. Its Sprinklr Service and Sprinklr Marketing products are the parts to watch, covering customer care and campaign planning and delivery.

  • HubSpot competes with Twilio for businesses paying for marketing campaigns and customer-data-driven engagement tools. Its paid engagement Hubs combined with Smart CRM are the relevant offering to watch, rather than its entire sales and operations platform.

Agenda

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    RINGCENTRAL, INC. earningsRNG

    RingCentral’s report will show whether businesses keep buying its cloud contact-center subscriptions, a customer-service market that overlaps with Twilio’s digital engagement-center software.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Twilio Inc. earningsThis company

    Most of Twilio’s revenue comes from usage-based fees, so this report will show whether existing customers are using more of its platform and whether that growth is reaching gross profit.

  2. Time to be announced

    Amazon.Com Inc earningsAMZN

    AWS hosts most of Twilio’s platform, so Amazon’s report will show how the cloud provider Twilio depends on is faring.

  3. Time to be announced

    Bandwidth Inc. earningsBAND

    Bandwidth’s programmable messaging is the closest comparison to Twilio’s largest revenue line, Messaging, so its report will show how demand for embedded business messaging is holding up.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Retail sales track how much consumers spend at stores, and stronger spending may lead Twilio customers to use more of its messaging, voice and other communications services, increasing usage-based fees.

in 49 daysTue, Dec 8

  1. Time to be announced

    Braze, Inc. earningsBRZE

    Braze helps brands use customer data for personalized messages across channels, competing with Twilio’s marketing and customer-data software, so its report will show demand for these tools.