Stock daily read

What happened with TAL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TAL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

TAL Education Group serves learners and their parents, with nearly all revenue coming from China. Families pay for enrichment programs, including science, programming and humanities, delivered through Xueersi Peiyou small classes, personalized services and online courses. Learning services and related offerings generate most revenue; this business also includes subscription-based software for learning institutions and other institutional customers.

Learning content products provide a substantial second source of revenue. TAL develops or licenses content and sells it as books, books paired with digital resources, learning devices and apps. Customers buy through online platforms, directly from TAL or through distributors.

The business depends on attracting learners and keeping them enrolled through teaching quality, as well as producing content families want and maintaining distribution channels. Chinese regulation limits what TAL can offer: it no longer provides academic after-school tutoring for primary and junior-secondary students in mainland China. Academic tutoring elsewhere is limited to selected age groups and locations where local law permits it, and its current services require applicable licenses and permits.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TAL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TAL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • New Oriental competes with TAL for students paying for classroom and online learning across China. Watch its education business and how it combines local classrooms with online teaching—not its East Buy retail business—to gauge the competition facing TAL’s learning services.

  • Gaotu competes with TAL for Chinese learners and parents paying for tutoring, enrichment courses and educational content. Its courses, books and digital learning tools are the offerings to watch for competition with TAL’s learning services and content products.

  • Youdao competes with TAL for Chinese families buying coding courses, digital learning content and smart learning devices. Watch its Dictionary Pens and Tutoring Pens for device competition as TAL’s learning devices and books with digital learning experiences drive growth in its learning-content business.

  • Four Seasons Education overlaps with TAL in China by selling science, creativity, humanities and coding enrichment programs to learners and developing learning technology and content for educational institutions. Its offerings for primary and middle schools are worth watching alongside its courses; tourism revenue is a separate business, and it does not disclose revenue contributions for these categories.

  • 17 Education competes with TAL in personalized learning products for Chinese families and teaching solutions for educational institutions. Watch purchases of its teaching software and hardware by regional education authorities and schools: these are its main paying customers for the institutional offering, making it a useful comparison for TAL’s institutional technology business.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    New Oriental Education and Technology Group, Inc. earningsEDU

    New Oriental's report will show how Chinese families are paying for classroom and online teaching, offering a read on the competitive demand facing TAL Education Group's learning services.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    TAL Education Group earningsThis company

    TAL Education Group earns from learning services and learning-content products, and its report will show whether expanding classes and selling more devices and books can grow both businesses without eroding gross margin.

in 23 daysThu, Nov 12

  1. Time to be announced

    Youdao, Inc. earningsDAO

    Youdao's report will show whether families are buying learning devices and digital content, a demand signal for the product categories in TAL Education Group's learning-content business.