Stock daily read

What happened with SNAL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

SNAL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Snail, Inc.’s business centers on ARK: Survival Evolved and ARK: Survival Ascended, sandbox survival games developed by Studio Wildcard. Players buy the games and downloadable expansions, mainly on PC and consoles. ARK supplies the substantial majority of revenue, and regular releases of additional content help bring in new players and keep existing players buying.

Most of Snail’s revenue comes from games it licenses and publishes rather than intellectual property it owns outright. It licenses ARK rights from SDE, Studio Wildcard’s parent, and pays SDE royalties and a fixed monthly license fee. SDE is controlled by the spouse of Snail’s founder and CEO. The business therefore depends heavily on this relationship and on license terms that limit how and for how long Snail can use the intellectual property.

Nearly all revenue reaches Snail through third-party distribution platforms such as Steam, Xbox and PlayStation, which process players’ payments. A large share passes through a single platform provider. Continued access to these storefronts and their distribution and payment terms are central to the business.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in SNAL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

SNAL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Snail’s results hinge overwhelmingly on ARK sales and releases from Studio Wildcard, whose parent SDE licenses the franchise to Snail for substantial fees and royalties.

  • NetEase’s multiplayer survival game Once Human competes with Snail’s ARK franchise for PC survival-game players.

  • Take-Two and Snail compete for spending by overlapping audiences buying PC and console games and extra game content. Take-Two’s sales of games and in-game items offer a read on spending by those players, though it also serves mobile audiences.

  • Motorsport Games and Snail both depend on PC players buying licensed games and downloadable expansions, although Motorsport Games sells racing games rather than Snail’s survival titles. Its digital game and extra-content sales offer a comparison for the paid-PC-game spending that also matters to Snail.

  • Sony both competes with Snail for players buying console and PC games and provides a route to customers by selling Snail’s games through PlayStation Network. Changes to that network’s terms can affect Snail’s ability to reach players and earn revenue.

  • Microsoft competes with Snail for PC and console game buyers while also distributing Snail’s games through Xbox and Game Pass. Watch changes to those services’ terms, which can affect Snail’s access to players and financial results.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Microsoft Corp earningsMSFT

    Microsoft’s report will show how Xbox gaming and content services are doing, offering a read on the channel Snail uses to reach players through Xbox and Game Pass.

in 23 daysWed, Nov 11

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Snail, Inc. earningsThis company

    ARK generates nearly nine-tenths of Snail, Inc.’s revenue, and this report will show whether players’ purchases of games and add-on content turn into revenue and gross profit after costs.

in 31 daysThu, Nov 19

  1. Time to be announced

    NetEase, inc. earningsNTES

    If NetEase’s report gives results for Once Human, it will show how strongly the survival game is competing with Snail’s ARK for players.