Stock daily read

What happened with PAYX today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

PAYX in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Paychex helps businesses calculate and pay wages, file payroll taxes and manage employees, mainly in the United States. Employers can run payroll themselves using its software, outsource the work to Paychex specialists, or combine the two. SurePayroll serves small businesses seeking self-service, Paychex Flex serves small and medium-sized businesses, and Paycor serves larger employers with more complex needs. Customers pay for individual services or bundles that connect payroll with HR, benefits and employee management. These software and HR outsourcing services generate most revenue; payroll processing alone accounts for a minority.

Paychex also takes on employer responsibilities through licensed subsidiaries that become co-employers of clients’ employees. These services combine payroll, HR and benefits administration, while exposing Paychex to certain health insurance and workers’ compensation claims. Its licensed insurance agency arranges coverage from multiple insurers and earns commissions on premiums.

The business depends on employers continuing to pay for its services, under agreements generally cancellable on short notice. Paychex also earns interest by investing client money between collection and payment to employees or tax authorities. That income depends on the funds available, interest rates and rules governing how soon the money must be remitted.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in PAYX’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

PAYX says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Paychex’s results hinge on U.S. employer growth and demand for outsourced payroll and HR services, with privately held Ultimate Kronos Group another important workforce-software rival to watch.

  • Automatic Data Processing (ADP) challenges Paychex across small-business payroll, workforce-management software and HR outsourcing, including services where provider and client jointly employ workers. Its Employer Services and co-employment business, ADP TotalSource, are the results to watch for competition across Paychex’s software and service offerings.

  • Paylocity Holding Corporation competes with Paychex for U.S. small and midsized employers buying payroll and integrated workforce-management software. Watch its clients’ employee counts and purchases of additional software: both determine revenue per client and show demand in the customer group the two companies share.

  • Paycom Software competes with Paychex for employers buying payroll software bundled with HR, recruiting, talent and workforce management. Payroll has historically supplied most of Paycom’s revenue, making its payroll-led sales a useful read on competition for Paychex’s integrated software.

  • Insperity, Inc competes with Paychex for small and midsized employers outsourcing payroll, HR, benefits and insurance through services that jointly employ their workers, known as PEO arrangements. Its largest revenue source, HR360, is the offering to watch for competition in this full-service outsourcing business.

  • TRINET GROUP, INC. competes with Paychex to handle payroll, benefits administration and HR for small and midsized businesses, either jointly employing their workers through PEO services or providing administrative outsourcing through ASO services. Its core PEO business is the closest comparison for Paychex’s co-employment services; its ASO offering does not include co-employment or TriNet-sponsored health plans.

  • Asure Software, Inc competes with Paychex for U.S. employers buying payroll, tax compliance, HR and benefits software and services. Watch both its direct business and partners selling its software under their own brands, since those partners account for most of its clients.

  • Barrett Business Services (BBSI) competes with Paychex for small and midsized businesses that outsource payroll, HR and workers’ compensation while jointly employing workers with the provider through PEO services. Its PEO client count and average client-worker employment are useful gauges of the customer base these services reach.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Automatic Data Processing earningsADP

    ADP's report will show employer demand for payroll, HR software and co-employment services, helping readers judge whether Paychex faces a shared market shift or tougher competition.

  2. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Paychex, the Fed’s rate decision matters because it can change the interest income the company earns on client funds and investments, as well as what it pays to borrow.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    TRINET GROUP, INC. earningsTNET

    TriNet's report will show demand and business pressures in co-employment outsourcing for small and midsized employers, a service Paychex also provides.

in 17 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)

    The jobs report tracks employment, which can affect Paychex’s payroll, HCM and related services by changing client hiring, workforce activity and demand for those services.

in 59 daysFri, Dec 18

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Paychex Inc earningsThis company

    Paychex earns recurring fees from employers for payroll and HR services, and this report will show whether client retention and Management Solutions growth are translating into profit.