Stock daily read

What happened with OTLY today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

OTLY in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Oatly supplies oat-based drinks for consumers seeking alternatives to dairy. Oatmilk brings in most of its revenue, and retail is its largest sales channel, followed by foodservice. Its best-selling product, Barista Edition Oatmilk, is designed for coffee. Oatly works with coffee shops and baristas to introduce its drinks, aiming to turn those first tastes into later grocery purchases. It also sells other oat-based foods, but these contribute much less revenue.

Oatly processes oats with enzymes to make a liquid base at its own facilities, then uses both its own production and manufacturing partners to supply finished products. It has shifted toward partners rather than continuing to build new factories, reducing the capital needed for expansion. This makes reliable partner capacity important, while certain products, including Barista Edition, depend on an enzyme from a single supplier.

Sales depend on consumers continuing to choose Oatly and retailers and foodservice customers placing repeat orders; customers generally have no long-term purchase commitments. Labeling rules also limit how Oatly presents its dairy alternatives. In the United Kingdom, it may no longer use the “Post-Milk Generation” trademark for those products.

Read allShow less
Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in OTLY’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

OTLY says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Oatly’s results hinge on oatmilk adoption and competition from major dairy-alternative suppliers missing from this list, including Danone, Chobani and Califia Farms.

  • Hain Celestial’s Joya and Natumi plant-based milks compete with Oatly for European consumers’ spending on dairy alternatives.

  • Beyond Meat and Oatly both depend on North American and European consumers choosing plant-based substitutes: Beyond Meat sells alternatives to meat, while Oatly sells alternatives to dairy. Beyond Meat’s plant-based meat sales offer a view of that consumer acceptance, though they do not directly measure demand for oatmilk.

  • Campbell’s Pacific Foods non-dairy beverages compete directly with Oatly’s oatmilk for retail and foodservice customers. Watch Pacific Foods’ non-dairy beverage sales rather than Campbell’s broader soup and snack business for a read on that competition.

  • Laird Superfood, Inc.’s plant-based coffee creamers compete with Oatly’s oatmilk for consumers replacing dairy in their coffee.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Oatly Group AB earningsThis company

    Oatly’s report will show whether selling more oatmilk through retail and foodservice is translating into revenue, or whether promotions and product mix are eating into price.

in 49 daysTue, Dec 8

  1. Time to be announced

    The Campbell's Company earningsCPB

    Campbell’s report will show whether Pacific Foods’ non-dairy beverages are gaining or losing retail and foodservice sales against Oatly’s oatmilk.