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What happened with NGL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NGL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Oil and gas production brings water to the surface that producers need to reuse or dispose of. NGL Energy Partners LP collects this water through pipelines and trucks, treats and recycles some, and injects the rest into disposal wells. Its Water Solutions business operates mainly in the Delaware Basin in New Mexico and Texas. Disposal fees provide most of this business’s revenue, supplemented by sales of oil recovered from the water. Long-term contracts often commit customers’ production from specified acreage to NGL’s system, and many require minimum water volumes.

NGL is directing its strategy and capital toward water services, but it still buys, transports and resells crude oil and supplies natural gas liquids such as propane and butane to retail, commercial and industrial customers. These product sales account for most company revenue. It earns margins between selling prices and supply and delivery costs, alongside transportation and storage fees. It has sold its refined-products business and most of its wholesale propane business, rather than exited energy logistics altogether.

The water and crude-oil businesses depend on producers maintaining output in the areas NGL serves, and their largest customers account for most of their revenue. Water disposal also requires permitted underground space with remaining capacity. Texas and New Mexico regulators can restrict or shut injection wells over earthquake or pressure concerns, limiting how much customer water NGL can accept.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NGL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NGL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Western Midstream Partners, LP and NGL Energy Partners LP compete to collect, recycle and dispose of water from Delaware Basin oil producers, and both operate energy-handling assets in the DJ Basin. Western Midstream’s Delaware water volumes offer a comparison for the producer activity feeding NGL’s water business.

  • Kinetik Holdings Inc. and NGL Energy Partners LP compete for Permian Basin producers’ spending on collecting and disposing of produced water and handling crude oil. Kinetik’s water-disposal and crude-oil gathering activity offers a comparison for demand in those parts of NGL’s business, rather than its much broader gas-processing operations.

  • Summit Midstream Corporation and NGL Energy Partners LP both collect crude oil and produced water for producers, and oil-price-driven drilling decisions affect their DJ and Permian operations. Watch Summit’s producer drilling and completion activity in its Rockies and Permian segments: fixed service fees do not remove the volume risk that also matters to NGL’s water business.

  • Energy Transfer LP and NGL Energy Partners LP compete to transport, store and sell crude oil and natural gas liquids for producers and downstream buyers. Energy Transfer’s activity in those products is the relevant comparison for NGL’s crude-oil and liquids businesses, not its wider natural-gas operations.

  • Enterprise Products Partners and NGL Energy Partners LP compete to move crude oil and to transport, store and distribute natural gas liquids from producers to buyers. Enterprise’s Crude Oil Pipelines & Services and NGL Pipelines & Services results offer a comparison for the supply and downstream demand reaching NGL’s logistics businesses.

  • Targa Resources and NGL Energy Partners LP compete to buy and sell crude oil and natural gas liquids and to collect, store and handle crude oil at terminals for producers and marketers. Targa’s crude-oil gathering and liquids sales are the activities to compare with NGL’s logistics businesses, rather than its natural-gas sales to utilities.

Agenda

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Enterprise Products Partners L.P. earningsEPD

    Enterprise Products Partners' crude-oil and natural-gas-liquids pipeline businesses will show how much product is moving through logistics markets where it competes with NGL.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Western Midstream Partners, LP earningsWES

    Western Midstream Partners' Delaware Basin water volumes will show whether producer activity is supporting demand in the water-services market where it competes with NGL.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP earningsThis company

    NGL's report will show whether more produced water moving through its systems is still translating into Water Solutions revenue and earnings.