Stock daily read

What happened with NCMI today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NCMI in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

National CineMedia operates a cinema-advertising business through NCM LLC. National advertisers and their agencies supply most of its revenue, paying to reach moviegoers through The Noovie Show and Spotlight Cinema Network’s CineLife show. National and regional buyers generally pay according to the audience impressions delivered; local businesses often buy advertising by theater and week. It also extends campaigns to theater lobbies, digital media and other out-of-home locations.

Long-term agreements give NCM LLC exclusive advertising-sales rights in participating theaters, with limited exceptions, including theaters operated by AMC, Cinemark and Regal. In return, it pays theater operators access fees or revenue shares. AMC and Cinemark together supply most of the core network’s attendance, making those relationships central to the business.

Revenue depends on advertisers’ budgets and on moviegoers attending theaters and being seated while the ads play. If the company delivers fewer audience impressions than promised, it may owe advertisers extra advertising time without extra revenue. A relatively small group of large customers supplies a significant share of revenue. Privacy rules also constrain how it collects and uses audience data for targeted advertising.

The listed company is a holding company that relies primarily on distributions and service payments from NCM LLC. Legal and credit-agreement restrictions can limit cash transfers from the operating business to the parent.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NCMI’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NCMI says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

National CineMedia’s results hinge on advertiser spending and movie attendance, with Screenvision a key cinema-advertising rival to watch that is missing from this list.

  • AMC gives National CineMedia long-term exclusive access to sell advertising in its theaters, where moviegoers generate both AMC’s ticket revenue and the audience impressions National CineMedia sells to advertisers. Watch attendance at AMC’s U.S. theaters for a direct read on the audience available for those ads.

  • Cinemark supplies screens for National CineMedia’s advertising network and receives monthly access fees, including payments per moviegoer and advertising revenue sharing. Attendance at Cinemark’s U.S. theaters drives both its revenue from showing films and the audience impressions National CineMedia sells to advertisers.

  • Marcus earns theater advertising revenue through National CineMedia, so movie attendance supports both its cinema business and the audience impressions National CineMedia sells to advertisers. Watch Marcus’s theater results rather than its overall results, which also include hotels and resorts.

Agenda

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    National CineMedia, Inc. earningsThis company

    National CineMedia sells ads against movie-theater audiences, and this report will show whether filling more inventory at lower prices can grow revenue without theater-access costs eating the gain.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC. earningsAMC

    AMC's report will show how many people attend its U.S. theaters, a direct read on the potential ad audience National CineMedia sells to advertisers.

  2. Time to be announced

    Cinemark Holdings, Inc. earningsCNK

    Cinemark's report will show attendance at its U.S. theaters, which brings National CineMedia potential ad impressions and also affects the access fees it pays Cinemark.