Stock daily read

What happened with LND today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

LND in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

BrasilAgro buys underdeveloped or underused farmland, improves its infrastructure and farming methods, and produces crops and raises cattle. It operates owned and leased farms in Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia, with Brazil supplying most revenue. Grains, led by soybeans, and sugarcane generate most operating revenue. Selling developed farms to property buyers is another central way it earns money from its land investments.

Agricultural buyers pay for its harvests. BrasilAgro sells all its soybeans to import/export companies in Brazil and has exclusive agreements to supply Brenco with sugarcane from specified farms. Sales depend heavily on a small customer group: a few buyers supply most revenue, and one customer accounts for most sugarcane revenue.

The business depends on buying land at workable prices, improving its productivity and finding buyers willing to pay more for developed farms. Commodity prices influence both farming income and land values, while farmland can be difficult to sell. Brazilian restrictions on foreign-controlled companies acquiring or leasing rural land may require official approval. Authorities are investigating whether BrasilAgro's acquisitions complied with those rules, which could restrict its land strategy.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in LND’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

LND says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

BrasilAgro’s results hinge on crop margins and gains from developing and selling farmland; SLC Participações and Terra Santa Agro are important rivals for land purchases that this list does not show.

  • Cresud SA controls BrasilAgro and shares its exposure to agricultural profitability and farmland appreciation: both sell crops and cattle and develop farmland to sell at a gain. Watch Cresud’s agricultural production and land-development-and-sales results for a read on those shared drivers.

  • ADECOAGRO S.A. and BrasilAgro both sell agricultural commodities and buy and sell farmland in South America, exposing them to crop prices, harvest yields and land values; Adecoagro explicitly names BrasilAgro as a farming competitor. Its Crops segment results offer a closer comparison for BrasilAgro’s grain business than its processed sugar, ethanol and energy businesses.

Agenda

todayWed, Oct 21

  1. 10:30 AMET

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)

    For BrasilAgro, weekly US crude oil and gasoline stock readings track how tight fuel supply is, which can move gasoline-linked ethanol prices and the revenue its sugarcane business earns.

in 20 daysTue, Nov 10

  1. Time to be announced

    Cresud SA earningsCRESY

    Cresud's farming and farmland-sale results will show what shared crop and land-value conditions may mean for BrasilAgro.

in 21 daysWed, Nov 11

  1. Time to be announced

    ADECOAGRO S.A. earningsAGRO

    Adecoagro's Crops results will show how crop-market conditions facing a direct farming competitor compare with those affecting BrasilAgro's grain business.