CRESY in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Cresud SA grows crops and sugarcane and raises cattle on owned and leased farmland in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, including through BrasilAgro. Agricultural production supplies most of its farming-business revenue. It sells crops mainly to exporters and processors, including Cargill, Bunge Alimentos and COFCO; most crop sales occur domestically, with exporters then shipping them abroad. It also leases farmland to other producers and selectively sells farms after developing them and realizing appreciation.
Cresud also owns a majority stake in IRSA, which operates Argentine shopping malls, offices and hotels. Shopping malls provide most of this property business’s revenue. Retail tenants generally pay the higher of a base rent or rent tied to store sales, alongside service charges. This makes occupancy, rent collection and shoppers’ spending central to the business, particularly in Buenos Aires and its surrounding metropolitan area.
Agricultural earnings depend heavily on weather and commodity prices. A small group of large customers supplies most agribusiness sales excluding farm sales, and customer agreements are generally short term. Farmland development also faces limits: foreign-ownership restrictions can constrain land acquisitions in Argentina and Brazil, while environmental rules can prevent woodland reserves from being fully developed. Argentine exchange controls restrict access to foreign currency and transfers abroad, and debt covenants can limit the subsidiary payments that are an important source of cash for Cresud itself.
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Cresud’s results depend on farm yields, commodity prices and land values alongside IRSA’s Argentine rental demand, where Cencosud is its principal shopping-mall competitor.
IRSA’s results feed directly into Cresud’s: Cresud owns 54.06% and consolidates its Argentine malls, offices, hotels and property developments. Watch IRSA’s mall and office occupancy and rents paid by tenants for a read on Cresud’s property business.
BrasilAgro’s farming and land-development performance feeds into Cresud’s results, which include its crop and sugarcane production. BrasilAgro grows produce for buyers in Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay and improves farms for resale, so watch both its harvests and gains from selling developed farmland.
ADECOAGRO S.A. competes with Cresud in growing and selling crops in Argentina and Brazil, and both develop farmland for eventual sale. Its crop-business results and farmland sales offer a comparison for Cresud’s farming and land-sale earnings, rather than its Argentine property rentals.
Bunge buys Cresud’s agricultural output through named customers Bunge Alimentos and Viterra, tying Cresud’s crop sales to its grain buying, selling and processing businesses. Bunge purchases and processes crops for food, animal-feed and biofuel customers; watch its grain-merchandising and processing news for signals about demand from Cresud’s buyers.
Bunge Global SA earningsBG
Bunge’s report will show whether its grain trading and processing are active, offering a demand signal for buyers of Cresud’s crops.
Look at Bunge’s grain-merchandising and processing businesses together. Strength in both would indicate firmer grain-trading and processing demand, a more supportive sales setting for buyers of Cresud’s crops; weakness would mean less support through this channel. This is a signal from a buyer and trader, not proof of Cresud’s own prices or sales. The takeaway is whether the crop-sales environment appears more or less supportive.
IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones S.A. earningsIRS
IRSA’s report will show mall and office occupancy and rent income, giving Cresud, which owns 54.06% of IRSA, a direct read on its property business.
Compare occupancy in IRSA’s malls and offices with its rental income. Steady occupancy alongside steady or rising rent would show tenants continuing to support the property business in which Cresud holds a majority stake; falling occupancy or rent would point to pressure on that income stream. The result tells readers whether tenants are providing stronger or weaker support for Cresud’s urban-property business.
Cresud SA earningsThis company
Cresud’s report will show whether agricultural sales or urban property rents and services are contributing more to its profit.
Compare revenue with segment profit—the profit reported for each business segment—for agriculture and urban properties. Stronger agricultural profit alongside revenue would show crops, cattle and agricultural services contributing more; stronger urban-property profit would point to rents, tenant services and hotels carrying more of the business. If revenue rises in a segment but its profit does not keep pace, costs or business mix are absorbing some of that growth. The comparison shows which business is contributing more to Cresud’s profit.
ADECOAGRO S.A. earningsAGRO
Adecoagro’s report will show how crops and farmland sales contribute to a peer’s business in Argentina and Brazil.
Read Adecoagro’s crop-business results separately from its farmland sales. Stronger crop results would show better farming results for a peer operating in Argentina and Brazil; weaker results would signal that farming pressure may also be affecting a competitor. More earnings from farmland sales would show land rotation contributing to Adecoagro’s results, not that Cresud also sold land. The takeaway is whether farming or land sales is supporting this peer’s performance.