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What happened with CRESY today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CRESY in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
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Company

Company overview

Cresud SA grows crops and sugarcane and raises cattle on owned and leased farmland in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, including through BrasilAgro. Agricultural production supplies most of its farming-business revenue. It sells crops mainly to exporters and processors, including Cargill, Bunge Alimentos and COFCO; most crop sales occur domestically, with exporters then shipping them abroad. It also leases farmland to other producers and selectively sells farms after developing them and realizing appreciation.

Cresud also owns a majority stake in IRSA, which operates Argentine shopping malls, offices and hotels. Shopping malls provide most of this property business’s revenue. Retail tenants generally pay the higher of a base rent or rent tied to store sales, alongside service charges. This makes occupancy, rent collection and shoppers’ spending central to the business, particularly in Buenos Aires and its surrounding metropolitan area.

Agricultural earnings depend heavily on weather and commodity prices. A small group of large customers supplies most agribusiness sales excluding farm sales, and customer agreements are generally short term. Farmland development also faces limits: foreign-ownership restrictions can constrain land acquisitions in Argentina and Brazil, while environmental rules can prevent woodland reserves from being fully developed. Argentine exchange controls restrict access to foreign currency and transfers abroad, and debt covenants can limit the subsidiary payments that are an important source of cash for Cresud itself.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CRESY’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CRESY says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Cresud’s results depend on farm yields, commodity prices and land values alongside IRSA’s Argentine rental demand, where Cencosud is its principal shopping-mall competitor.

  • IRSA’s results feed directly into Cresud’s: Cresud owns 54.06% and consolidates its Argentine malls, offices, hotels and property developments. Watch IRSA’s mall and office occupancy and rents paid by tenants for a read on Cresud’s property business.

  • BrasilAgro’s farming and land-development performance feeds into Cresud’s results, which include its crop and sugarcane production. BrasilAgro grows produce for buyers in Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay and improves farms for resale, so watch both its harvests and gains from selling developed farmland.

  • ADECOAGRO S.A. competes with Cresud in growing and selling crops in Argentina and Brazil, and both develop farmland for eventual sale. Its crop-business results and farmland sales offer a comparison for Cresud’s farming and land-sale earnings, rather than its Argentine property rentals.

  • Bunge buys Cresud’s agricultural output through named customers Bunge Alimentos and Viterra, tying Cresud’s crop sales to its grain buying, selling and processing businesses. Bunge purchases and processes crops for food, animal-feed and biofuel customers; watch its grain-merchandising and processing news for signals about demand from Cresud’s buyers.

Agenda

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Bunge Global SA earningsBG

    Bunge’s report will show whether its grain trading and processing are active, offering a demand signal for buyers of Cresud’s crops.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones S.A. earningsIRS

    IRSA’s report will show mall and office occupancy and rent income, giving Cresud, which owns 54.06% of IRSA, a direct read on its property business.

in 21 daysTue, Nov 10

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Cresud SA earningsThis company

    Cresud’s report will show whether agricultural sales or urban property rents and services are contributing more to its profit.

in 22 daysWed, Nov 11

  1. Time to be announced

    ADECOAGRO S.A. earningsAGRO

    Adecoagro’s report will show how crops and farmland sales contribute to a peer’s business in Argentina and Brazil.