Stock daily read

What happened with KMT today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

KMT in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Kennametal supplies tools that manufacturers use to cut and shape metal into parts for vehicles, aircraft and industrial equipment. Metal Cutting generates most of its sales, with products sold under the Kennametal and WIDIA brands. Customers buy standard or custom tooling, supported by engineers who help select and apply it; the company sells directly and through distributors and other channels.

Its other business, Infrastructure, sells tools for mining, drilling and road milling, along with wear-resistant components and metallurgical powders. These products use materials such as tungsten carbide and ceramics to withstand demanding industrial conditions. Buyers include mining and construction operators, energy businesses and manufacturers. No single customer supplies a large share of company sales.

The business depends on access to tungsten as well as customers’ manufacturing and earthworks activity. Global tungsten mining and processing capacity is concentrated in China, and export controls have increased uncertainty about supply and cost. Kennametal uses long-term supply agreements, spot purchases and its own tungsten recycling to secure materials, but it may not be able to pass higher material costs on to customers.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in KMT’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

KMT says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Kennametal’s results hinge on machining activity and cutting-tool competition, making Sandvik an important direct rival to watch even though it is absent from this list.

  • MSC Industrial Direct distributes Kennametal’s cutting tools to metalworking customers, so those customers’ machining activity drives both MSC’s tool sales and Kennametal’s tooling demand.

  • Timken’s bearing and motion-product sales reflect activity in machinery, transportation, aerospace and mining markets that also buy Kennametal’s cutting and wear tools. Watch demand from those customer groups for a read on the markets supporting Kennametal’s sales.

  • Manufacturers’ metalworking activity supports both Lincoln Electric’s sales of welding equipment and consumables and Kennametal’s sales of tools for machining metal parts. Lincoln Electric’s welding sales offer another view of those manufacturers’ production spending.

  • ESAB Corporation’s welding and fabrication consumables depend on metalworking customers’ production activity, as do Kennametal’s machining tools. Watch ESAB’s consumables sales for another indication of how active those customers are.

  • Parker-Hannifin sells motion-control products and aerospace systems to equipment makers in many of the same markets that buy Kennametal’s cutting tools. Its sales of airframe and engine components to manufacturers are worth watching alongside Kennametal’s demand from aerospace customers.

Agenda

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. earningsMSM

    MSC Industrial Direct’s report will show whether metalworking customers are buying cutting tools actively, including Kennametal tools sold through MSC.

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc earningsLECO

    Lincoln Electric’s report will show whether manufacturers are buying welding equipment and consumables, another read on demand for Kennametal machining tools.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Kennametal Inc. earningsThis company

    Kennametal’s report will show whether sales of metal-cutting tools and Infrastructure wear products can support the business together, rather than growth relying on higher prices alone.

  2. Time to be announced

    ESAB Corporation earningsESAB

    ESAB Corporation’s report will show whether metalworking customers keep buying welding consumables, offering a read on demand for Kennametal tools and wear products.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 9:15 AMET pre-market

    Industrial Production MoM (Oct)

    Kennametal sells cutting tools and wear-resistant components to factories, transportation and energy businesses, and earthworks customers, so U.S. production activity indicates whether customers may use equipment more and buy more of its products.