Stock daily read

What happened with JBS today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

JBS in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Supermarkets, restaurants and food distributors buy fresh and frozen meat and prepared foods from JBS N.V. Beef, chicken and pork carry most of the business, with North American beef its largest revenue-producing operation. Its chicken businesses include Pilgrim’s Pride and Brazil’s Seara, while Swift is among its meat brands. Most sales stay within countries where JBS operates plants, though exports are also an important source of revenue.

The production model differs by animal. In North American beef, JBS buys cattle from outside producers, slaughters and processes them, and sells the beef to customers or other processors. Its chicken operations control feed mills, hatcheries and processing plants, supplying independent growers with chicks, feed and veterinary services before processing the birds into fresh or prepared products.

What JBS earns depends heavily on the gap between livestock and feed costs and the prices customers pay, as well as how efficiently its plants run. Higher input costs cannot always be passed on fully or promptly. Food-safety inspections and import rules govern access to markets, and animal-disease outbreaks can interrupt supplies or shut export markets.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in JBS’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

JBS says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

JBS also depends on Brazilian cattle supply and beef export markets, where Marfrig and Minerva are important competitors missing from this list.

  • Tyson Foods competes with JBS for U.S. beef, pork, chicken and prepared-food sales, so both face the same major meat markets and livestock supply pressures. Watch Tyson’s beef operating profit for a read on cattle-processing conditions, and its chicken results for the feed-cost pressures facing businesses that raise and process their own birds.

  • Pilgrims Pride Corporation is JBS’s majority-owned, consolidated chicken business, so its sales to retailers, distributors and foodservice operators directly contribute to JBS’s revenue and earnings. Its fresh and prepared chicken sales in the United States, United Kingdom, Europe and Mexico—and the feed costs behind them—are a direct window into JBS’s chicken performance.

  • Smithfield Foods competes with JBS by processing hogs and selling fresh pork and packaged meats to U.S. retail and foodservice buyers. Its Fresh Pork results offer a comparison for JBS’s U.S. pork-processing business, while its bacon, sausage and ham sales show the competitive backdrop for prepared meats.

  • Hormel Foods competes with JBS’s U.S. pork and prepared-meat businesses by selling branded pork products to retail and foodservice buyers. Sales of brands such as SPAM and Hormel Black Label are worth watching for demand in the branded-meat market where JBS competes.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Smithfield Foods, Inc. earningsSFD

    Smithfield Foods’ report will show how U.S. buyers are responding to fresh pork and packaged meats, a competitive read-through for JBS’s U.S. pork business.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Pilgrims Pride Corporation earningsPPC

    Pilgrim’s Pride’s report will show whether chicken sales cover feed costs, in a business whose results flow directly into JBS’s revenue and earnings.

  2. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    JBS’s substantial debt includes borrowing exposed to changing interest rates, so the Fed’s decision affects what JBS pays to finance its meat and food operations.

in 20 daysMon, Nov 9

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    JBS N.V. earningsThis company

    JBS N.V.’s report will show whether it can pass higher cattle and feed costs on to buyers and protect the margin on meat sales.

in 27 daysMon, Nov 16

  1. Time to be announced

    Tyson Foods, Inc. earningsTSN

    Tyson Foods’ beef results will show how U.S. cattle costs compare with beef selling prices, a market read-through for JBS’s North American beef business.