INSW in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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International Seaways carries oil worldwide for commercial shippers, foreign governments and government agencies using owned and chartered-in tankers. Crude-oil transport and refined-product transport, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, both contribute substantial revenue. Customers pay for individual voyages or hire vessels for a period at a fixed daily rate.
Most earnings come from spot-market voyages, largely arranged through commercial pools that manage vessels’ commercial employment, including TI and Maersk Tankers. This makes revenue sensitive to changing freight rates. Fixed-rate charters provide a smaller, more predictable revenue stream during their contracts, but replacement rates depend on the market when those contracts expire.
The business depends on how much oil needs shipping, how far it travels and how many suitable tankers are available. Profitability also depends on fuel costs and limiting waiting time and travel without cargo. Much of vessel and crew management is outsourced. Ships must meet safety and environmental requirements and pass oil-company inspections to keep trading and secure work; applicable sanctions also constrain their employment.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Frontline competes with International Seaways for oil-company and trader cargoes, carrying crude oil and refined products in overlapping VLCC, Suezmax and LR2/Aframax tanker classes. Its freight rates in those classes offer a read on the same markets that pay International Seaways.
Teekay Tankers and International Seaways compete to ship oil for energy companies and traders, so both are heavily exposed to spot tanker rates. Watch Teekay Tankers’ spot vessel earnings for a read on crude-oil shipping conditions, rather than treating its revenue mix as identical to International Seaways’.
TORM and International Seaways face the same spot-market swings when customers pay them to carry refined products in MR, LR1 and LR2 tankers. TORM’s tanker results offer a focused view of the market for cargoes such as gasoline and jet fuel that also feeds International Seaways’ product-carrier business.
Scorpio Tankers competes with International Seaways for customers’ refined-product shipments, including cargoes carried by MR and LR2 tankers. Changes in Scorpio’s fleet in those classes matter to the vessel supply competing for International Seaways’ product-carrier work.
Hafnia Limited competes with International Seaways to carry petroleum products for oil companies and traders, charging either for individual voyages or for vessels hired over a period. Watch Hafnia’s voyage pricing separately from its period-charter rates: they reflect different contract exposure to the product-tanker market.
Tsakos Energy Navigation competes with International Seaways by hiring out conventional tankers to oil companies and refiners for worldwide oil transport. Its conventional-tanker charter rates are the relevant comparison, rather than results from its LNG carriers or shuttle tankers.
Okeanis Eco Tankers competes with International Seaways to carry customers’ crude oil in VLCCs and Suezmaxes, with its fleet predominantly employed on spot or short-term business. Its earnings from carrying individual crude cargoes are a useful read on those markets, though Okeanis also pays the fuel, port and canal costs of each voyage.
ARDMORE SHIPPING CORPORATION competes with International Seaways for customers’ clean petroleum cargoes using product and chemical tankers employed mainly in the spot market. Ardmore’s work carrying multiple product grades through multiple loading and discharge ports shows where its chemical-handling expertise helps it compete for those shipments.
DHT HOLDINGS, INC. competes with International Seaways’ VLCCs for customers’ international crude-oil transport contracts. Its spot-market charter earnings provide a closer read on current VLCC conditions than revenue from vessels hired out on time charters.
Nordic American Tanker competes with International Seaways’ Suezmax fleet to carry customers’ crude-oil cargoes. Watch its daily earnings after voyage expenses—the time charter equivalent, or TCE, rate—for a focused view of Suezmax shipping returns.
Teekay Corporation competes with International Seaways through its controlling stake in Teekay Tankers, which carries customers’ crude oil and refined products. Its tanker-segment results are the relevant signal for International Seaways, not its Australian services for government-owned vessels.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)
International Seaways’ U.S. crude-stock and gasoline readings track stored oil and fuel, which can signal changes in U.S. crude imports or exports that affect demand for its lightering services and the revenue those services earn.
Expected-0.3MLast release-8.557M
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the -0.3M estimate, it is above the previous -8.557M. If stocks come in above estimates, looser oil and fuel supply may weigh on prices and shipment flows; International Seaways’ U.S. lightering demand and service revenue could weaken if crude imports or exports fall.
If it comes in below expectations
If stocks come in below estimates, tighter oil and fuel supply may support prices and shipment flows; International Seaways’ U.S. lightering demand and service revenue could strengthen if crude imports or exports rise.
TORM plc earningsTRMD
TORM's report will show what the market pays to move cargoes such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel—the same market where International Seaways' product tankers seek work.
Separate TORM's voyage earnings from period-charter rates: the first reflects individual product-cargo voyages, while the second reflects vessels hired for a set period. Strength in both would point to broad support for product tankers and better earning opportunities for International Seaways' mostly spot-exposed fleet; weaker voyage earnings despite steady period rates would signal pressure on its spot business.
International Seaways, Inc. earningsThis company
International Seaways earns most of its revenue from spot voyages, and this report will show how product- and crude-tanker rates and earning days shape its shipping revenue and vessel-operating income.
Read time-charter-equivalent (TCE) rates—the daily earnings after voyage expenses—alongside revenue days for product and crude tankers. Firmer product-tanker rates with steady days, and stable crude-tanker earnings, would show both fleets supporting vessel-operating income; weak product rates or fewer earning days would mean product shipping still weighs on revenue, even if crude holds up.