Stock daily read

What happened with HP today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

HP in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Helmerich & Payne (H&P) supplies drilling rigs, crews and technology to oil and gas exploration and production companies. Its FlexRig fleet and drilling software help customers drill horizontal and directional wells, with technology designed to improve drilling accuracy and efficiency. Customers generally pay a daily rate for drilling services. Some contracts add payments for meeting agreed drilling targets, while retaining a base daily rate if those targets are missed.

North American drilling supplies most of H&P’s revenue, with operations concentrated in U.S. shale basins. Acquiring KCA Deutag expanded its international land-drilling business, particularly in the Middle East, and its offshore operations. Most offshore revenue comes from managing drilling operations on customer-owned rigs rather than operating H&P’s own platform rigs.

Revenue depends on how many rigs customers put to work and the rates they agree to pay. Their drilling budgets respond to current and expected oil and gas prices and available funding. A small group of large customers supplies most revenue; the international and offshore businesses each rely heavily on their largest customer. Customers can terminate or suspend contracts, and KCA Deutag agreements can allow this without a termination fee, leaving rigs idle. Argentine currency controls also restrict H&P’s access to dollars and its ability to remit cash from its operations there.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in HP’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

HP says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Nabors competes with H&P for oil and gas producers’ U.S. and international land-drilling work, platform drilling and rig technology. Its customers usually pay daily for a rig and crew, making its drilling rates and rig utilization useful signs of the pricing pressure H&P faces.

  • Patterson-UTI Energy Inc’s APEX rigs compete directly with H&P’s FlexRigs for drilling contracts from U.S. oil and gas producers. Watch its APEX performance and fuel-saving upgrades: these address the efficiency customers also seek from H&P’s rigs.

  • Precision Drilling Corporation competes with H&P to supply high-specification land rigs and drilling technology to oil and gas producers in the United States and Middle East. Producers generally pay it daily while rigs work, so its rig utilization and daily rates in those markets offer a read on demand and pricing for H&P’s competing fleet.

  • Liberty Energy Inc. shares H&P’s exposure to North American producers’ well spending: H&P drills wells, while Liberty earns fees for fracturing and preparing onshore wells for production. Liberty’s North American completion-services revenue is a useful window on the producer budgets that also fund H&P’s rig work.

  • Halliburton and H&P depend on oil and gas producers’ spending on wells: Halliburton sells well-construction and completion services, while H&P supplies rigs and drilling services. Halliburton’s Drilling and Evaluation business offers a focused view of spending on building wells that supports H&P’s rig contracts.

  • NOV sells drilling tools, equipment and automation systems to contractors and producers in the same investment cycle that supports H&P’s drilling fleet; this does not establish that H&P buys from NOV. Watch drilling-equipment demand in NOV’s Energy Equipment business for signs of spending on rigs and upgrades.

  • Baker Hughes shares H&P’s dependence on producers’ well-construction spending, selling drilling equipment and services while H&P earns drilling-contract revenue. Its Oilfield Services & Equipment drilling and fluids business is the part to watch for this tie, rather than its broader industrial and energy-technology operations.

Agenda

todayTue, Oct 20

  1. Time to be announced

    Halliburton Company earningsHAL

    Halliburton's Drilling and Evaluation business will show how producers' spending on building wells is changing, a useful signal for H&P's rig demand.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Patterson-UTI Energy Inc earningsPTEN

    Patterson-UTI's APEX performance and fuel-saving upgrades will show how well it is meeting efficiency demands that also matter to H&P's competing FlexRigs.

in 29 daysWed, Nov 18

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Helmerich & Payne, Inc. earningsThis company

    H&P's report will show whether its paid rig work is translating into a stronger operating contribution.