GRNT in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Granite Ridge Resources owns stakes in U.S. oil and natural gas wells rather than operating wells itself. It puts capital into acquiring and developing these interests, then receives its share of revenue from the oil and gas produced. Operating partners generally handle drilling, production and sales to energy marketing companies, refineries and affiliates. Oil supplies most of Granite Ridge’s revenue, and the Permian Basin accounts for most of its production.
The business depends on those partners to develop and operate wells, often with little input from Granite Ridge on operating decisions. One partner accounts for a substantial share of revenue from its assets, and a limited group of partners handles its oil and gas receivables. Earnings also depend on production volumes and market prices, especially oil prices; hedging covers only part of that exposure. As wells deplete, Granite Ridge needs to acquire or develop additional reserves. Restrictions on hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal can limit where and how its partners drill and produce.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Northern Oil and Gas and Granite Ridge both pay for shares of wells in overlapping basins, earn from oil and gas sales, and rely on partners to drill and operate them. Watch Northern’s well proposals and participation decisions: lower oil prices typically reduce both, offering a read on opportunities for this investment model.
Permian Resources sells oil and gas from the Permian Basin, which supplies most of Granite Ridge’s production, so regional selling prices matter to both. Its oil prices after contractual adjustments offer a comparison for what Granite Ridge’s largest producing region can earn.
MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY shares Granite Ridge’s exposure to its largest producing region through Delaware Basin oil and gas development, and also operates in the Haynesville gas region. Watch its Delaware drilling and completion spending, where Matador directed most of its capital in 2025; it also earns fees for processing and moving production for third parties.
Devon Energy sells oil and gas to third parties in several of the same oil basins as Granite Ridge, exposing both to oil prices and regional drilling economics. Watch Devon’s oil selling prices: even its long-term contracts largely move with the market rather than shielding revenue from price changes.
SM Energy and Granite Ridge both earn most of their revenue from selling oil and have material production in the Permian and South Texas. SM’s oil revenue is the useful comparison—oil supplied 82% of its 2025 production revenue—rather than total growth, which mainly reflected a full year of acquired Uinta production.
Ovintiv produces and markets oil and gas in the Permian, sharing Granite Ridge’s largest regional exposure, but its substantial Canadian operations make group results a less direct comparison. Focus on its Permian production and drilling efficiency rather than combining them with its Canadian business.
Riley Exploration Permian’s oil and gas sales offer a comparison for Granite Ridge’s dominant Permian portfolio. Watch what Riley receives after the costs of gathering, processing and transporting production, since regional costs affect the value of those sales.
Ring Energy’s oil-rich Texas Permian properties share the oil-price and regional cost exposure of Granite Ridge’s largest producing basin. Ring sells to end users, marketers and other buyers; watch its oil selling prices and transport needs, including trucking where pipeline access is impractical.
Occidental Petroleum’s leading Permian and DJ Basin oil and gas operations share oil-price and regional production exposure with Granite Ridge’s interests there. Those producing regions are the closer comparison, since Occidental also sells production from a broader international portfolio.
APA’s largest source of oil and gas production and cash flow is the Permian, matching Granite Ridge’s principal basin exposure. Watch APA’s drilling and completion costs there: its reported cost reductions offer a comparison for the economics of developing Granite Ridge’s largest producing region.
EOG Resources develops and sells oil and gas across major U.S. basins, sharing the price and well-return cycle that drives Granite Ridge’s investments. Watch EOG’s well margins and payback periods, which it uses to assess whether drilling can generate cash flow.
Crescent Energy and Granite Ridge both buy producing oil and gas interests, so commodity prices and reinvestment decisions shape the cash they earn from production sales. Watch how much Crescent spends to maintain production: its lower-decline asset base is a useful contrast when assessing Granite Ridge’s drilling investment needs.
Kimbell Royalty Partners and Granite Ridge both receive oil-weighted production revenue from diversified interests with substantial Permian exposure, but Kimbell receives operators’ royalty payments without funding drilling. Its oil revenue and production volumes offer a comparison for price and operator activity, not for Granite Ridge’s drilling costs.
Chord Energy’s oil-focused Williston operations share Bakken oil-price and regional operating exposure with Granite Ridge. Chord sells to refiners, marketers and other buyers; watch the regional price adjustments and transportation costs in its crude sales for a read on Bakken selling conditions.
Magnolia Oil & Gas produces oil and gas in South Texas, sharing Eagle Ford development and commodity-price exposure with Granite Ridge’s interests there. Watch the production growth it achieves while keeping drilling and completion spending within cash flow—a comparison for reinvestment needs in this region.
Permian Resources Corporation earningsPR
Permian Resources' report will give a read on adjusted oil prices in the basin that supplies most of Granite Ridge's production.
Read Permian Resources' oil price after contractual adjustments as a signal of Permian selling conditions, not as a price directly interchangeable with Granite Ridge's. A steady or higher price would suggest a supportive regional backdrop for Granite Ridge's sales; a lower price would point to weaker pricing conditions for production from its largest basin.
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. earningsREPX
Riley Exploration Permian's report will show what its Permian oil and gas sales retain after gathering, processing and transport costs, a useful read on Granite Ridge's main basin.
Look at what Riley retains from sales after gathering, processing and transportation, and note its transportation needs. If proceeds after those costs hold up, local infrastructure and transport are not visibly eroding sales value; if they shrink or transportation needs weigh more heavily, costs may be eating into what producers earn, a market-access risk for Granite Ridge too.
APA Corporation earningsAPA
APA's report will show how Permian drilling and completion costs are changing, a reference for development costs in Granite Ridge's largest basin.
Check whether APA's Permian drilling and completion costs continue to fall. Lower costs suggest less spending may be needed to develop wells in the same region, supporting the economics of Granite Ridge's largest basin; rising costs or reductions that do not last would mean more cash may be needed per well.
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. earningsThis company
Granite Ridge sells oil and gas from wells run by operating partners, and this report will show whether production and realized prices are supporting sales together.
Read net production alongside realized prices excluding settled derivatives, then compare with realized prices including them. Rising production with steady prices excluding derivatives would show that both output and market pricing support sales. If production or those prices weaken while prices including derivatives hold up, settled hedge receipts are cushioning the decline; the business still depends on production and market prices.
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. earningsNOG
Northern Oil and Gas, like Granite Ridge, funds interests in wells operated by partners, and its report will show whether operators are bringing forward wells to join.
Look at Northern's well proposals and participation decisions alongside oil prices. Steady proposals and participation would show that this non-operated investment model still has development opportunities; if proposals and participation fall as oil prices weaken, Granite Ridge may also have fewer chances to invest in new wells through its operators.