Stock daily read

What happened with GHG today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

GHG in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

GreenTree Hospitality Group serves business and leisure travelers through hotel brands including GreenTree Inns. Hotels generate most of its revenue, and almost all hotels in its network are franchised and managed. Hotel owners and operators pay GreenTree to use its brands, operating standards, reservation systems and management support. They fund development and daily operations themselves; GreenTree collects an initial franchise fee and recurring fees linked to hotel revenue.

GreenTree also operates a smaller group of hotels directly, collecting room payments while bearing rent, staffing and other operating costs. This contributes a substantial part of hotel revenue despite the small property count. Its restaurant business includes Da Niang Dumplings and Bellagio, earning mainly from directly operated restaurants and wholesale sales, with a smaller contribution from restaurant franchise fees.

Substantially all revenue comes from China. Hotel earnings depend on occupied rooms and room rates, while franchise income also depends on franchisees funding their properties, maintaining standards and paying fees. Hotels and restaurants must meet licensing, fire-safety, hygiene and food-safety requirements. Some directly operated properties lack required permits or certificates, exposing them to fines, suspension or closure.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in GHG’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

GHG says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • H World competes with GreenTree for Chinese economy and midscale hotel guests and for owners who pay for hotel brands and management services. Watch growth in H World's managed franchise network: it shows how many more hotels are choosing a rival to GreenTree's fee-earning network.

  • Atour competes with GreenTree for paying hotel guests and franchise owners in China, especially as GreenTree expands its midscale and higher-tier brands. Watch openings from Atour's hotels under development for signs of growing competition for those guests and owners.

  • Wyndham Hotels & Resorts competes with GreenTree through its economy and midscale brands in China, seeking the same price-conscious paying guests and hotel owners choosing a franchise brand.

  • InterContinental Hotels Group's Holiday Inn Express hotels compete with GreenTree's midscale offerings for Chinese business travelers paying for rooms and hotel owners choosing a franchise brand.

Agenda

in 27 daysMon, Nov 16

  1. Time to be announced

    H World Group Limited earningsHTHT

    H World Group’s report will show how many hotel owners are joining its managed-franchise network in China, where GreenTree also competes to win franchisees.

in 36 daysWed, Nov 25

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. earningsThis company

    GreenTree earns most of its hotel revenue from franchise and management fees, and this report will show whether those fees can hold up as hotel room revenue weakens.