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What happened with GDRX today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

GDRX in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

GoodRx Holdings operates a free prescription-price comparison service in the United States. Consumers use its apps or websites to compare nearby pharmacies, then present a GoodRx code to obtain the selected discounted price. Most revenue comes from these prescription transactions, overwhelmingly at physical pharmacies. When a code saves a consumer money against the pharmacy’s list price, a partner pays GoodRx. The payer is often a pharmacy benefit manager (PBM), which negotiates pharmacy prices; GoodRx receives a share of the amount paid or a fixed fee. Direct pharmacy partners also pay transaction fees, and repeat fills can continue generating revenue.

Pharmaceutical manufacturers also pay GoodRx to advertise and integrate programs that help patients afford medicines, including discounted cash prices for branded drugs. This is its next-largest revenue source. Consumers can also pay for subscriptions such as Gold, which offers lower prices at participating pharmacies and other benefits.

The business depends on consumers repeatedly using its discounts and on partners supplying attractive prices and accepting its codes. A limited number of PBMs supply much of its pricing and a significant portion of revenue; transactions at a limited number of pharmacy chains also account for a significant share of revenue. GoodRx does not control the underlying negotiated drug prices. Its discounts operate outside insurance or government healthcare benefits, while healthcare fraud-and-abuse laws constrain its marketing and financial arrangements with partners, including revenue sharing.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in GDRX’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

GDRX says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

GoodRx depends chiefly on prescription prices negotiated by pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) and prescription transaction volumes at chains including CVS and Walgreens, while drugmaker-funded affordability programs are becoming a more important growth driver.

  • Amazon competes for the consumers seeking affordable medicines whom GoodRx serves: Amazon Pharmacy offers cash-price prescriptions and the RxPass subscription, while GoodRx offers prescription discounts and paid savings subscriptions.

  • GoodRx earns transaction revenue when consumers use its discounts to fill prescriptions at Kroger’s supermarket pharmacies, so Kroger’s prescription volumes and pharmacy pricing matter to GoodRx. Watch how many prescriptions Kroger fills and the prices consumers pay, rather than its grocery sales alone.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    GoodRx’s floating-rate term loan links monthly interest payments to short-term rates, so the Fed’s rate decisions can change what GoodRx pays and how much income remains.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Amazon.Com Inc earningsAMZN

    Amazon's report will show whether its cash-price prescriptions and RxPass attract more cost-conscious consumers, intensifying its competition with GoodRx for the same customers.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    GoodRx Holdings, Inc. earningsThis company

    GoodRx earns transaction revenue when consumers use its discount codes at pharmacies, and this report will show whether better revenue per transaction is offsetting fewer active consumers.