Stock daily read

What happened with FNRN today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

FNRN in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

First Northern Community Bancorp serves individuals and small and medium-sized businesses through its wholly owned subsidiary, First Northern Bank of Dixon, in Northern California’s Sacramento Valley region. Customers use the bank to hold deposits and borrow for business, consumer and property needs.

Customer deposits provide most of the bank’s funding. Borrowers’ interest payments supply most of its revenue, with investment interest contributing a smaller share and banking fees providing additional income. Earnings depend heavily on the gap between what the bank earns on loans and investments and what it pays on deposits and borrowings. Most loans are secured by real estate, tying repayment and collateral values closely to Northern California’s economy and property market.

Banking rules require the company and bank to maintain minimum capital levels and limit capital distributions. The parent company relies mainly on dividends from the bank for its own cash needs, and those payments are subject to regulatory and corporate-law restrictions.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in FNRN’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

FNRN says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • BCB Bancorp and First Northern Community Bancorp both use customer deposits to make business and property loans, relying on local relationships and low-cost funding to compete. Watch BCB’s ability to attract low-cost deposits as a comparison for First Northern’s cost of funding its loans.

  • Citizens Community Bancorp, Inc. offers a comparison for First Northern Community Bancorp’s small-business and household lending: both fund business and property loans with deposits, but serve different local economies. Citizens’ small-business banking in Wisconsin and Minnesota is the useful comparison, rather than a direct read on demand in First Northern’s Sacramento Valley market.

  • Provident Financial Hldgs and First Northern Community Bancorp both earn chiefly by using customer deposits to fund California loans, making lending income a useful comparison. Provident focuses on single-family, multifamily and commercial property loans in Southern California’s Inland Empire, rather than First Northern’s Sacramento Valley commercial banking.

  • Western New England Bancorp, Inc., through Westfield Bank, shares First Northern Community Bancorp’s exposure to changing loan rates and borrowers’ ability to repay business and property loans; both serve local businesses and individuals. Watch Westfield’s commercial and residential property loans for a comparison of the credit conditions facing this kind of lending.

  • Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. provides a comparison for First Northern Community Bancorp’s lending spread: both collect deposits from individuals and businesses, then lend to business and property borrowers. Compare what Sound pays for deposits with what it earns on those loans to assess the same balance between funding costs and loan yields at First Northern.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. earningsSFBC

    Sound Financial’s report will show how the gap between loan returns and deposit costs is changing in its deposit-funded lending business, a comparison for First Northern’s spread.

  2. Time to be announced

    Western New England Bancorp, Inc. earningsWNEB

    Western New England Bancorp’s report will show whether its business and property borrowers are repaying, a comparison for credit risk in First Northern’s business and property loans.

  3. Time to be announced

    Provident Financial Hldgs earningsPROV

    Provident Financial’s report will show whether its Southern California property loans are sustaining interest income, a limited comparison for First Northern’s California lending returns.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    First Northern Community Bancorp earningsThis company

    First Northern earns interest on loans and investments and pays interest on deposits, so this report will show whether that gap is holding up.

  2. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    First Northern earns most of its interest income from loans, so the Fed’s policy rate matters because it can change what borrowers pay and what the Bank pays depositors, affecting the income left after funding costs.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    BCB Bancorp Inc earningsBCBP

    BCB Bancorp’s report will show whether attracting lower-cost deposits to fund loans is getting harder, a comparison for First Northern’s funding costs.