EXPE in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with EXPE today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Expedia Group operates Expedia, Hotels.com and Vrbo, where travelers book hotels, vacation rentals, flights and travel packages. Hotel reservations generate most of its revenue. Its largest revenue model involves collecting travelers’ payments at booking and paying lodging suppliers generally after the stay. Suppliers provide room rates and availability; Expedia Group does not control the rooms or bear unsold-room inventory risk. It earns compensation negotiated with suppliers. For reservations it passes to providers without collecting the full booking payment, it earns commissions or ticketing fees from suppliers or travelers. Vrbo primarily charges per booking and also earns traveler service fees.
Consumer brands account for most of the business, but supplying other companies is a substantial second route to travelers. Through Rapid API and booking sites carrying partners’ brands, Expedia Group lets businesses offer its travel inventory to their own customers. Advertisers also pay to reach visitors on its sites, while majority-owned trivago earns advertising revenue mainly by sending travelers from hotel price comparisons to booking providers.
The business depends on travel demand and suppliers continuing to offer inventory, competitive rates and compensation. Search engines supply a significant share of website traffic, making access to those visitors important to booking volume and marketing costs. Short-term rental laws can restrict which properties Vrbo may list, including requirements to obtain property registration numbers where registration systems apply.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Booking Holdings competes globally with Expedia for travelers’ hotel reservations, collecting booking payments or arranging reservations for fees through its merchant and agency platforms. Watch Booking.com’s accommodation business: it supplies most of Booking’s merchant revenue and almost all its agency revenue, putting it against Expedia’s main revenue source.
Airbnb competes directly with Expedia’s Vrbo for hosts offering alternative accommodations and travelers booking them; Vrbo earns traveler service fees on bookings. Airbnb’s news on accommodation availability and guests’ all-in costs shows where Vrbo faces competition for those stays.
Trip.com Group competes with Expedia for leisure and business travelers buying accommodation reservations, flights and packaged travel through online platforms. Its accommodation and flight offerings show the breadth of booking choices competing with Expedia’s travel marketplace.
Tripadvisor both competes with Expedia for hotel-search and experiences customers and sends it prospective travelers in return for click-based advertising payments. Watch its Hotels and Other advertising business for this paid traffic relationship, while Viator earns commissions on completed experiences bookings in a market Expedia also serves.
trivago N.V.’s results feed directly into Expedia’s accounts because Expedia majority-owns it and reports it as a separate segment. trivago compares hotel prices and earns advertising revenue by sending travelers to booking sites; its third-party revenue contributed $417 million to Expedia in 2025.
Google’s travel-search services can steer hotel-booking traffic away from Expedia and raise its cost of attracting customers; Google earns mainly from advertisers, while Expedia earns mainly from arranging lodging reservations. Watch how Google promotes its own travel services in search, where it can put itself between Expedia and travelers.
MakeMyTrip Limited competes with Expedia for travelers booking hotels, alternative accommodations and holiday packages, with its business concentrated on travel to and within India. Watch its MakeMyTrip and Goibibo hotel and package offerings, the parts of its travel marketplace that overlap with Expedia’s lodging-led business.
Choice Hotels and Expedia both earn from hotel stays: hotel owners pay Choice royalties tied to room revenue, while Expedia earns from arranging reservations. Choice’s own booking sites and loyalty promotions also compete for those guests, so watch whether its booking efforts emphasize direct channels rather than online travel agents.
Expedia uses Sabre Corporation’s technology to access airline offerings and arrange flight bookings; Sabre generally collects transaction fees from travel suppliers when agencies book through its network. Watch Sabre’s reservation volumes and distribution revenue for activity in the booking network supporting Expedia’s air business, rather than its much larger lodging business.
Booking Holdings Inc. earningsBKNG
Booking competes with Expedia for hotel reservations, and its report will show how much accommodation demand is flowing through this close rival.
Read Booking's accommodation booking growth alongside accommodation revenue: that helps distinguish more bookings from revenue lifted by rates or booking mix. If both strengthen, travelers are still booking through online platforms, while Booking is also competing harder for those reservations. If bookings weaken but revenue holds, that does not by itself show that lodging demand or Expedia's competitive pressure has improved. Booking's results describe the market and a rival, not Expedia's market share.
trivago N.V. earningsTRVG
Expedia owns trivago, which earns advertising revenue by sending hotel-search traffic to booking sites, so its report shows how that business is contributing to Expedia.
Read trivago's referral traffic to booking sites alongside its advertising revenue. If both rise, more hotel-search traffic is being turned into sales and the segment is contributing more revenue to Expedia. If revenue rises without traffic following, more revenue per referral—not necessarily more traveler demand—may explain the change. If both fall, trivago's advertising business is contributing less.
Expedia Group, Inc. earningsThis company
Lodging is Expedia's largest business, and this report will show how room bookings and prices translate into lodging revenue and operating earnings.
Read room nights booked, average daily rate (ADR), and adjusted EBITDA together. More room nights with rates holding steady would point to booking volume driving lodging; adjusted EBITDA rising too would show that growth reaching operating earnings. If room nights weaken while revenue holds, higher rates or a different mix may be supporting revenue without more travelers. Expedia generally records lodging revenue when a stay occurs, so bookings and revenue in one quarter may relate to different trips.
Airbnb, Inc. earningsABNB
Airbnb competes with Expedia's Vrbo for vacation-rental hosts and guests, and its report will show how availability and the total cost of a stay shape that contest.
Read Airbnb's available stays alongside the total price guests pay. More availability with competitive all-in prices gives travelers more alternatives and puts greater pressure on Vrbo to attract hosts and bookings. Tighter availability or rising total prices could ease that competitive pressure. Airbnb's results describe the conditions facing Vrbo; they do not show that Expedia's own listings or bookings have changed.
TripAdvisor, Inc. earningsTRIP
Tripadvisor competes with Expedia for hotel shoppers and sells paid referrals to booking sites, so its report can show whether this source of travel leads is active.
Read Tripadvisor's Hotels and Other advertising revenue alongside any reported hotel referral or click activity. If both increase, hotel shoppers are still moving through this paid-referral channel, where booking sites compete for traffic; if both weaken, the channel is offering a weaker demand signal. Tripadvisor's results alone do not show how much traffic Expedia bought or what it paid to acquire customers.