Stock daily read

What happened with ETSY today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ETSY in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Etsy runs an online marketplace where sellers offer distinctive goods, including handmade and vintage items. It does not hold physical inventory: sellers manage their shops and handle shipping and returns. Most revenue comes from marketplace fees, including charges for listing items, completing sales and processing payments. Sellers can also pay for Etsy Ads to reach shoppers and buy shipping labels through the platform.

The business depends on keeping buyers shopping and sellers listing items and using paid services. U.S. buyers account for most purchases on the Etsy marketplace, and a small group of frequent buyers contributes a substantial share of sales. Sellers’ fulfillment and buyers’ trust matter because Etsy does not directly control much of the shopping experience. Product-safety, sanctions and other marketplace rules limit what can be sold and where sellers can ship.

Etsy also operates Depop, a marketplace focused on second-hand apparel that earns through marketplace fees and optional seller services. Etsy has agreed to sell Depop to eBay and plans to operate it until the sale closes, subject to regulatory approval and other closing conditions.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ETSY’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ETSY says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Etsy’s results depend on buyers spending on distinctive merchandise and returning to shop, and on sellers paying for advertising, while the agreed Depop sale to eBay also affects its financial position.

  • eBay competes with Etsy for buyers and independent sellers of discretionary merchandise; both connect buyers with sellers and earn transaction fees and seller advertising revenue. Watch completion of eBay’s agreed $1.2 billion cash purchase of Depop, subject to adjustments and closing conditions: Etsy plans to use the proceeds for share repurchases, investment in its marketplace and general corporate purposes.

  • Amazon competes with Etsy for shoppers buying home goods, jewelry, apparel, craft supplies and gifts, selling directly to consumers and hosting third-party sellers while Etsy connects buyers with sellers and earns fees. Amazon’s low prices and fast, free delivery set a competing offer for those shoppers, making its retail selection, pricing and delivery service worth watching for Etsy holders.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Etsy, Inc. earningsThis company

    Etsy’s report will show whether spending on its marketplace is stabilizing and whether revenue from ads and transaction fees is outpacing rising costs.

  2. Time to be announced

    eBay Inc earningsEBAY

    eBay’s report will show how much buyers and independent sellers are doing on a close marketplace rival, offering a read on the demand and seller competition Etsy shares.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Amazon.Com Inc earningsAMZN

    Amazon’s report will show whether its online stores and third-party seller business are growing, testing the low-price, fast-delivery offer competing for some Etsy shoppers.