Stock daily read

What happened with ETS today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ETS in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Elite Express Holding Inc. operates through its wholly owned subsidiary, JAR Transportation Inc., which collects packages from FedEx distribution hubs and delivers them to recipients in California. JAR is an independent contractor serving exclusive areas designated by FedEx. FedEx pays it weekly, combining a fixed fee for maintaining service coverage with charges based on delivery stops and packages handled. Activity-based charges provide most of the revenue, with e-commerce deliveries the largest component.

FedEx is the company’s only customer and supplies all its revenue. The business therefore depends on FedEx’s delivery volume, pricing and continued use of JAR: contract renewal is not guaranteed, and FedEx can unilaterally adjust fees and terms. Holiday shopping increases delivery workloads and requires additional drivers and flexible routing. Labor is the largest delivery cost, and fuel is another significant expense.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ETS’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ETS says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • FedEx buys all of Elite Express’s services, paying it to collect packages from FedEx hubs and deliver them to recipients in designated California areas, and sets the rates that determine its revenue. Watch FedEx’s contractor pay terms and residential package volumes: Elite Express earns both fixed weekly fees and payments tied to delivery activity.

  • UPS competes for U.S. business and residential parcel deliveries with the FedEx network that pays Elite Express to deliver packages in California. Watch UPS’s U.S. Domestic Package business for conditions in the parcel market where that rivalry plays out.

  • Amazon’s sales to shoppers create residential shipment demand, but Amazon Logistics competes with the FedEx network that pays Elite Express for last-mile deliveries. Watch Amazon’s retail demand and delivery-network news: e-commerce deliveries are Elite Express’s largest revenue component.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    United Parcel Service, Inc. earningsUPS

    UPS’s U.S. Domestic Package business will show how parcel demand is shaping up in the market where it competes with FedEx, the customer that pays Elite Express.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    FedEx Corporation earningsFDX

    FedEx’s package activity and contractor pay terms will show how delivery demand and weekly service-fee revenue are changing for Elite Express’s only customer.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Amazon.Com Inc earningsAMZN

    Amazon’s retail demand and delivery-network updates will show what shopper orders and Amazon’s in-house network mean for e-commerce shipments, Elite Express’s largest revenue category.