Stock daily read

What happened with COLL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

COLL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Collegium Pharmaceutical’s largest business is pain medicine: Belbuca, Xtampza ER and Nucynta IR and ER together generate most of its revenue. It also sells Jornay PM for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and Symproic for constipation caused by opioid treatment. Its dedicated pain and ADHD sales teams reach prescribing physicians, while wholesalers buy the medicines and distribute them to pharmacies and healthcare organizations.

A small group of large wholesalers handles much of its product shipments. Demand depends on physicians prescribing its medicines and government and private insurers covering them. Coverage terms, discounts and rebates affect how much Collegium earns from each sale.

Collegium outsources manufacturing. Patheon is the sole manufacturer of Xtampza ER and Nucynta ER, and the company obtains active ingredients from sole or limited suppliers. Its opioid pain medicines and Jornay PM are controlled substances, so manufacturing and distribution require regulatory registrations and compliance with handling rules. U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration quotas also limit the quantities of key ingredients available for Xtampza ER, Nucynta and Jornay PM.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in COLL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

COLL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Collegium’s results depend on pain and ADHD prescriptions, insurance coverage and generic substitution, with Purdue Pharma an important opioid rival to watch outside this list.

  • Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s Qelbree competes with Collegium’s Jornay PM for ADHD prescriptions and insurance coverage, despite belonging to a different drug class. Watch Qelbree’s coverage and sales for signs of the competition facing Jornay PM.

  • AYTU BioPharma, Inc. competes for the same branded extended-release ADHD prescriptions as Collegium: its Adzenys XR-ODT and Cotempla XR-ODT are rivals to Jornay PM.

  • Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. puts price and insurance-coverage pressure on Collegium’s branded pain and ADHD medicines by selling competing generic opioids and methylphenidate.

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals’ suzetrigine competes with Collegium’s Nucynta IR by offering adults with moderate-to-severe acute pain a non-opioid treatment. Watch suzetrigine’s sales for signs of competition in acute-pain prescriptions.

  • Collegium depends on Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.’s Patheon to manufacture its pain medicines Xtampza ER and Nucynta ER; Patheon is the sole manufacturer of both. Any production interruption matters for those sales, because qualifying a replacement would take time and cost more.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. earningsTMO

    Thermo Fisher Scientific’s report will show whether Patheon is sustaining production of the two pain medicines it makes for Collegium, Xtampza ER and Nucynta ER.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Collegium’s $580 million floating-rate term loan costs more when policy rates and the SOFR benchmark rise, leaving less cash for its medicines business and other needs.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. earningsThis company

    Collegium Pharmaceutical’s report will show whether sales of its six medicines are still growing and turning into operating profit.