CETY in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Clean Energy Technologies, Inc. gets most of its revenue from natural-gas trading through CETY HK’s subsidiaries in China. They prepay wholesale suppliers for bulk gas at fixed prices, then sell it to industrial customers and municipalities at daily spot prices. The business earns the difference between its purchase cost and selling price, so it depends on bulk discounts, cash to fund purchases and spot prices that remain above its costs.
The company also earns revenue by selling equipment and providing engineering, construction and project-management services to businesses and municipalities that want to turn unused heat or waste into usable energy. Its Clean Cycle generators convert heat from factories and power-generation facilities into electricity customers can use or sell. Its waste-to-energy solutions turn waste into electricity, renewable natural gas and other usable products. Higher conventional-energy prices make these systems more attractive to buyers; lower prices weaken the incentive to install them.
Its HTAP waste-to-energy projects need company or third-party financing. HTAP systems have not been installed in the United States, where prospective buyers must assess operating data from Russia or Ukraine. Rights to build and operate facilities using ENEX’s HTAP systems exclude Russia and CIS countries. Continued company operations also depend on securing additional financing or generating more cash from sales.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
CETY’s results hinge on project delivery and Chinese gas-trading margins, while its technology depends on Calnetix’s magnetic-turbine rights, ENEX-derived pyrolysis technology and its Exergy agreement.
Ormat Technologies, Inc. competes with CETY to sell equipment and project services that turn recovered heat into electricity using an Organic Rankine Cycle. Watch Ormat’s recovered-energy equipment sales in its Product segment, rather than its electricity sales, for the business that overlaps with CETY’s Clean Cycle offering.
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. competes with CETY for industrial and municipal customers buying energy-generation equipment; CETY specifically names it as a waste-to-energy competitor. Its news about turning waste into energy is more relevant to CETY’s offering than its broader boiler, maintenance and emissions-control business.
Stabilis Solutions, Inc. offers a North American comparison for CETY’s gas sales to Chinese industrial users without pipeline connections: Stabilis sells and delivers liquefied natural gas and provides fueling equipment and services to industrial and remote users. Watch its industrial gas sales and pricing against competing fuels for a read on delivered-gas demand, not as a direct measure of CETY’s Chinese trading margins.
Clean Energy Fuels Corp. gives CETY investors a comparison for natural-gas demand from truck fueling and industrial users, but serves North America rather than China. It sells renewable and conventional natural gas as vehicle fuel in the U.S. and Canada and bulk gas to industrial users; watch those fuel sales rather than its Environmental Credit revenue when comparing it with CETY’s gas trading.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)
For Clean Energy Technologies, US crude oil and gasoline stocks help show how tight energy supply is, which can move oil and gas prices and change customers’ incentive to buy its waste-heat and waste-to-energy systems.
Read the stock change as a signal about energy-market tightness: a build points to looser supply that may weaken customers’ case for buying Clean Energy Technologies’ systems, while a draw points to tighter supply that may strengthen it.
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. earningsBW
Babcock & Wilcox’s report shows whether industrial and municipal customers are funding waste-to-energy projects, the part of its business that competes with CETY.
Read any identifiable waste-to-energy project updates alongside revenue and margins in the related business, which also includes activities beyond waste-to-energy. Stronger project activity, revenue and margins would show a competitor better able to win and deliver projects, raising pressure on CETY; weaker results would mean less evidence of that pressure, not proof CETY has won work.
Ormat Technologies, Inc. earningsORA
Ormat’s report shows whether customers are buying its recovered-energy equipment, the business that overlaps with CETY’s Clean Cycle systems.
Focus on recovered-energy equipment sales in Ormat’s Product segment, not its electricity sales. Stronger equipment sales show customers are buying heat-to-power systems that overlap with Clean Cycle, pointing to active demand and competition for CETY; weaker sales mean less evidence of that demand, not a measure of CETY’s own sales.
Stabilis Solutions, Inc. earningsSLNG
Stabilis’s report shows how industrial customers in North America are buying delivered gas and how it is priced against competing fuels, a comparison for one customer group CETY serves.
Read Stabilis’s industrial gas sales and pricing alongside the competing fuels its customers can choose. Stronger sales with steadier pricing would support the view that customers needing delivered gas are buying, a helpful demand signal for CETY’s industrial users; weaker sales or pricing would suggest softer demand or tougher fuel competition. Stabilis operates in North America, so its results do not establish CETY’s trading margins in China.