Stock daily read

What happened with AWX today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

AWX in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Avalon Holdings Corp. helps industrial, commercial and public-sector customers arrange the removal, transport and disposal of hazardous and nonhazardous waste. Customers pay Avalon to manage that process using outside transporters and approved treatment and disposal facilities; its brokerage business does not own landfills or collect waste itself. Waste services bring in slightly more revenue than its golf and resort operations, with brokerage and management supplying most of the waste revenue. This business depends on access to disposal facilities, their prices and customers that often have no long-term contracts. Restrictions on moving waste across state lines can also limit its work.

Avalon also manages a customer-owned landfill whose revenue depends on that sole customer's waste volume. Separately, one waste-services customer supplies a meaningful share of company revenue. Avalon has a minority ownership interest and managerial control in saltwater disposal wells, but those wells are currently shut down under a state regulator's order and generate no operating revenue.

The other substantial business connects Avalon Golf and Country Club with The Grand Resort. Members pay annual dues for access to club and resort amenities, while members, public visitors and hotel guests pay for lodging, dining, golf and related services. Members are the main revenue source for the golf courses, making annual membership sales and renewals important. The courses in northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania also depend heavily on golf-season weather.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in AWX’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

AWX says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Quest Resource Holding Corporation shares Avalon's dependence on outside providers: both charge business customers to arrange waste transportation, treatment and disposal rather than owning substantial disposal assets. Watch Quest's costs for third-party services, since Avalon also faces disposal-price increases it may not be able to pass on.

  • Republic Services competes for the industrial waste business that pays Avalon to manage hazardous and nonhazardous waste, but also operates its own treatment and disposal facilities. Its industrial waste and environmental solutions contract wins are worth watching for competition facing Avalon.

  • Waste Management competes for Avalon's industrial and commercial customers by collecting and disposing of their waste through its extensive landfill network, while Avalon arranges disposal through outside providers. Watch Waste Management's commercial and industrial service pricing: Avalon relies on finding cost-efficient disposal options to retain customers.

  • Casella Waste Systems Inc competes with Avalon for paying industrial and commercial customers needing nonhazardous waste disposal in northeastern U.S. markets, including Pennsylvania. Its collection and disposal pricing in those markets is a useful comparison for Avalon's customer-tailored disposal offers.

  • Waste Connections competes with Avalon to handle nonhazardous waste for industrial, commercial and municipal customers; it charges for collection, transfer and disposal, while Avalon arranges transportation and disposal. Watch its disposal-site positioning, which it identifies as a cost advantage because transporting waste is expensive.

  • GFL Environmental competes with Avalon's disposal-management services by charging U.S. commercial and industrial customers to transport and dispose of waste. Watch GFL's price increases and surcharges to offset costs, against Avalon's warning that competition may force it to absorb some disposal-price increases.

Agenda

in 7 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    GFL Environmental Inc. earningsGFL

    GFL Environmental's price increases and surcharges for U.S. business customers will show whether waste-service providers can pass rising costs on, a pressure Avalon also faces in disposal.

in 19 daysMon, Nov 9

  1. Time to be announced

    Casella Waste Systems Inc earningsCWST

    Casella Waste Systems' collection and disposal pricing in the Northeast will show what local customers are being asked to pay in a market where Avalon also competes for waste-management business.

  2. Time to be announced

    Quest Resource Holding Corporation earningsQRHC

    Quest Resource arranges waste transport, treatment and disposal for business customers and pays outside providers, so its costs offer a read on the supplier pressure Avalon also faces.