Stock daily read

What happened with CWST today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CWST in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Casella Waste Systems runs waste-collection routes, transfer stations, recycling facilities and landfills, principally in New England, New York and the Mid-Atlantic states. Collection brings in most of its revenue: businesses and municipalities generally pay under service contracts, while most households subscribe. Transfer stations consolidate waste from Casella’s trucks and other haulers for transport to disposal facilities. Customers pay its transfer stations and landfills fees based on the weight of waste accepted; some waste goes to third-party disposal facilities.

Its smaller Resource Solutions business processes recyclable and organic materials, charging customers to handle them and selling recovered materials. Through National Accounts, it also arranges waste services for large, multi-site customers and brokers material sales. Long-term contracts support a substantial share of recycling deliveries, sometimes with municipal minimum-volume guarantees. Processing fees and recycling charges that rise when recovered-material prices fall help limit its exposure to those prices.

The disposal business depends on available landfill capacity and government permits. Those permits restrict what facilities can accept and how much waste they can handle; renewals and expansion approvals are not guaranteed. Restrictions can require Casella to send more waste to outside disposal facilities.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CWST’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CWST says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Waste Connections competes with Casella for customers paying for waste collection and disposal; both rely on strong local positions and access to disposal sites. Watch its exclusive collection contracts and nearby landfill access, which help it compete on service and cost.

  • Waste Management competes with Casella for households, businesses and municipalities paying for waste collection, recycling and disposal in Casella’s eastern U.S. markets. Watch its collection pricing and contract wins: competitors cutting prices or winning bids can force Casella to charge less or lose customers.

  • Republic Services competes with Casella for municipal, commercial and industrial contracts that pay for waste collection, recycling and disposal. Its wins of long-term collection and disposal agreements are worth watching for pressure on Casella’s bids and customer retention.

  • GFL Environmental and Casella both charge municipalities, households and businesses for waste collection through disposal; Casella also entered the Mid-Atlantic in fiscal 2023 by buying four GFL subsidiaries. Watch GFL’s price increases, surcharges and contract renewals for how it balances covering costs with retaining these customers.

  • Quest Resource Holding Corporation competes with Casella’s National Accounts business for large customers needing waste and recycling services across many locations. Quest coordinates outside providers rather than owning significant trucks or landfills, so watch its multi-year customer contracts and recurring management-fee revenue for competition in this part of Casella’s business.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Waste Connections, Inc. earningsWCN

    Waste Connections' report will show how its local collection network and access to nearby disposal sites shape its competition for waste customers, a pressure Casella also faces.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    GFL Environmental Inc. earningsGFL

    GFL's report will show whether it can use price increases and surcharges to cover service costs while keeping customers, a test of the pricing room Casella may also have.

in 20 daysMon, Nov 9

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Casella Waste Systems Inc earningsThis company

    Casella earns most of its revenue from waste collection, and this report will show whether pricing and customer activity can outpace the cost of serving them.