Stock daily read

What happened with ALRM today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ALRM in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Alarm.com connects security systems, cameras, access controls and energy-management devices so homeowners and businesses can receive alerts and manage their properties remotely. Independent service-provider partners sell, install and support the technology, then resell its services to property owners. These partners pay Alarm.com monthly fees based on subscriber counts and selected features. Software subscriptions and licenses generate most revenue; sales of devices that enable the services provide a smaller but substantial revenue stream.

The business depends on partners winning and retaining subscribers and providing ongoing support. A limited group of partners supplies a substantial share of revenue, with ADT a major customer. Alarm.com earns fees from existing ADT accounts on its platforms and lower monthly patent royalties for covered ADT-branded services that run elsewhere.

Because the platform handles subscriber-system data, privacy laws restrict how Alarm.com can collect, use, store and transfer that information. Certain products also require government certification before they can be sold.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ALRM’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ALRM says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Alarm.com's results hinge on subscriber growth through security-service partners, especially ADT LLC, which accounts for more than 15% and no more than 20% of its revenue.

  • Napco Security Technologies, Inc competes with Alarm.com for security dealers' spending on alarm connectivity, access control and video systems; NAPCO sells equipment and communication services, while Alarm.com charges service partners monthly fees for its cloud platform. Watch NAPCO's recurring communication-services revenue growth as a sign of its progress in a recurring-revenue business where the two compete.

  • Resideo Technologies, Inc competes with Alarm.com through professional installers, selling connected security, energy-management and home-control solutions for homes and commercial properties. Its Products and Solutions business is the part to watch for competing offerings, while its ADI distribution business supplies professionals with security and other installation products.

Agenda

in 13 daysMon, Nov 2

  1. Time to be announced

    Napco Security Technologies, Inc earningsNSSC

    Napco Security Technologies’ report will show how its recurring communication-services revenue from security dealers is changing; those dealers also pay for Alarm.com’s cloud platform.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Resideo Technologies, Inc. earningsREZI

    Resideo Technologies’ report will show demand for its connected security and home-control products sold through professional installers, which compete with Alarm.com for installers and customers.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. earningsThis company

    Alarm.com earns recurring revenue from service providers’ monthly platform fees per subscriber, and this report will show whether partners and subscribers are still supporting growth in its cloud business.