Stock daily read

What happened with ADSK today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ADSK in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Autodesk sells software to professionals and businesses in architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media and entertainment worldwide. Architecture, engineering, construction and operations is its largest revenue line, followed by AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT. Manufacturing contributes a smaller share, and media and entertainment a smaller share still. Customers can buy individual products such as AutoCAD and Revit or Industry Collections that bundle software for related work.

Most revenue comes from subscriptions. Customers pay for access to desktop software, cloud services and updates during a contract term; enterprise agreements give larger customers access to a broad pool of products. The business depends on customers renewing that access and expanding their use, particularly from individual flagship products into Collections and cloud functionality. A substantial portion of revenue remains tied to AutoCAD-related offerings and Collections.

Autodesk now handles most sales directly, including through its online store and a model in which Solution Providers quote customers but Autodesk completes the transaction. Distributors and resellers remain important, particularly in emerging markets and government sales. TD Synnex still supplies a meaningful share of revenue, though Autodesk says it is not substantially dependent on that distributor. Export controls and sanctions restrict delivery to certain locations, governments and people without authorization.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ADSK’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ADSK says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Autodesk’s results hinge on construction and manufacturing design-software spending, with Dassault Systèmes, Siemens and Nemetschek important competitors to watch beyond this list.

  • Bentley Systems competes with Autodesk for infrastructure owners’ and engineering firms’ spending on engineering design and project-delivery software. Its public works and utilities business is the clearest area to watch for competition over those customers.

  • Procore competes with Autodesk’s construction cloud products for contractors’ spending on managing projects and preparing work before construction. Watch Procore’s subscriptions for estimating, bid management and project management—the products most directly tied to that contest.

  • Trimble competes with Autodesk for architects’, engineers’ and contractors’ spending on modeling, design and construction-workflow software. Its Architects, Engineers, Construction, and Owners segment is the part of its results to watch for this overlap, rather than transportation and logistics.

  • PTC competes with Autodesk for manufacturers’ spending on software that designs products and manages their data through the product lifecycle. Its business with industrial, automotive and electronics customers is worth watching alongside Autodesk’s Fusion and Inventor manufacturing products.

Agenda

in 15 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Procore Technologies, Inc. earningsPCOR

    Procore Technologies’ report will show how contractors are spending on estimating, bid management and project management software—the same construction-workflow budgets its products contest with Autodesk’s.

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    PTC, INC earningsPTC

    PTC’s report will show how industrial, automotive and electronics customers are spending on product design and lifecycle software, the same manufacturing budgets Autodesk’s Fusion and Inventor compete for.

  2. Time to be announced

    Trimble Inc. earningsTRMB

    Trimble’s Architects, Engineers, Construction, and Owners business will show how customers are spending on modeling, design and construction-workflow software, where it competes with Autodesk.

in 36 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Autodesk Inc earningsThis company

    Autodesk’s report will show whether recurring revenue is growing across its architecture, engineering, construction, AutoCAD and manufacturing software, and whether that growth is weighing on margins.