ABG in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
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Asbury Automotive Group serves car buyers and owners through dealerships and collision repair centers across the United States. New vehicles bring in the largest share of revenue, followed by used vehicles. Trade-ins help supply its used-car inventory, while repair, maintenance and parts sales keep the dealerships earning after a vehicle sale. Parts and service contribute more gross profit than any other business line.
When customers buy a vehicle, Asbury arranges loans or leases through third-party financial institutions, which pay it compensation; Asbury does not lend directly to buyers. It also sells vehicle-protection contracts, earning commissions on third-party products and premiums through its own Total Care Auto (TCA) business. TCA offers contracts such as vehicle service and prepaid maintenance plans through Asbury dealerships.
The business depends on manufacturers supplying desirable vehicles and parts, and on buyers being able to obtain financing. Toyota and Lexus together account for the largest manufacturer-group share of new-vehicle revenue. Manufacturer agreements determine which brands Asbury may sell and service, impose operating standards, and can limit acquisitions or require additional facility investment. State franchise laws generally require good cause before manufacturers terminate or refuse to renew those agreements.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
AutoNation competes with Asbury for U.S. customers buying new and used cars, repairs and vehicle-protection products through franchised dealerships. Its parts-and-service revenue offers a comparison for Asbury’s repair and maintenance business beyond car sales.
Group 1 Automotive competes with Asbury for dealership customers buying new and used vehicles, parts and repairs; both also earn fees for arranging buyers’ financing. Watch Group 1’s U.S. dealership business rather than its combined results, which also include the U.K.
Lithia Motors competes with Asbury for customers buying new and used cars, financing and insurance products, and repairs through multibrand dealership networks. Lithia’s results also cover the U.K. and Canada, so its vehicle-sales business is a broader comparison than Asbury’s U.S. network.
Sonic Automotive competes with Asbury for overlapping U.S. car buyers and owners through multibrand franchised dealerships and collision repair centers. Its franchised-dealership segment, about 85% of 2025 revenue, is the closest comparison for Asbury’s vehicle-sales and collision-repair business.
Penske Automotive’s retail car dealerships compete with Asbury for vehicle buyers, but Penske also has substantial international and commercial-truck businesses. Its retail automotive dealership results are the relevant comparison, rather than truck sales or group-wide revenue.
CarMax competes with Asbury both to buy used-car inventory and to sell those cars to retail customers with financing and related products. Its vehicle-buying and retail-sales business is the comparison for Asbury’s used-car operation; CarMax’s own lending business serves only buyers of its retail vehicles.
Carvana competes with Asbury for used-car buyers and trade-ins through its online buying and selling platform. Watch its retail vehicle sales: those transactions also create financing and add-on product revenue, alongside opportunities to acquire trade-ins.
Asbury depends on Toyota Motor Corporation to supply cars its Toyota dealerships sell to customers; Toyota was its largest individual brand, generating 19% of new-vehicle revenue in 2025. Toyota’s vehicle supply and dealership-agreement news therefore matter directly to that revenue line.
Asbury depends on Ford Motor Company for cars its Ford dealerships sell to customers, which generated 13% of Asbury’s new-vehicle revenue in 2025. Watch Ford’s production and model availability, not just its Ford Credit lending business: they determine what those dealerships have to sell.
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. earningsThis company
Parts and service provide a large share of Asbury Automotive Group's gross profit, and this report will show whether that business can keep offsetting changes in gross profit per vehicle.
Read parts-and-service gross profit alongside gross profit per new and used vehicle. Continued service gains with vehicle gross profit holding up would show that service supports earnings without vehicle sales losing ground. If service gains fade while per-vehicle gross profit falls, both parts of the profit engine are under pressure. Separate growth from acquired dealerships from the performance of the existing business to judge how solid the growth is.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For Asbury’s dealerships, Federal Reserve rate decisions signal borrowing costs that can change what customers pay to finance vehicles and what Asbury pays on variable-rate debt and floor-plan loans.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher-than-expected rates can make vehicle loans less affordable for Asbury customers, weighing on vehicle sales and the finance-and-insurance commissions dealerships earn, while increasing interest expense on debt and floor-plan loans that reprice.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower-than-expected rates can make vehicle loans more affordable for Asbury customers, potentially supporting vehicle sales and dealership finance-and-insurance commissions, while reducing interest expense on debt and floor-plan loans that reprice.
Sonic Automotive, Inc. earningsSAH
Sonic Automotive's franchised dealerships compete with Asbury Automotive Group for U.S. car buyers and owners, so its report will show what shared customers and market conditions look like.
Focus on vehicle sales and gross profit in Sonic Automotive's franchised-dealership business. If both hold up, U.S. buyers shared with Asbury are still buying and dealers are holding prices; if both weaken, demand or pricing is under pressure, making conditions tougher for Asbury's vehicle sales too.
Toyota Motor Corporation earningsTM
Toyota is Asbury Automotive Group's largest individual vehicle brand, and its report will show whether Toyota's production and model availability support sales at Asbury's Toyota dealerships.
Watch Toyota's production and model availability, not just its profit. Ample supply would give Asbury's Toyota dealerships more vehicles for buyers to choose from; constraints or models that do not match demand would limit what those stores can sell and weaken the appeal of this important source of revenue.
Retail Sales MoM (Oct)
Retail sales track how much consumers spend in stores, and for Asbury that spending can shape purchases of new and used vehicles and the related finance-and-insurance, parts and service business.
Stronger retail spending may support Asbury’s vehicle purchases and related finance-and-insurance, parts and service business; weaker spending may weigh on those sales and follow-on services.