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What happened with VHC today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

VHC in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

VirnetX Holding Corp develops cybersecurity software and services, including its VirnetX One platform, but these offerings remain early in commercialization and revenue is limited. Its paid work includes providing subject-matter and technical expertise as a subcontractor under a U.S. Department of Defense contract supporting AFRL activities.

The company plans to build revenue by working with partners that integrate its cybersecurity offerings into their own solutions and resell them to customers. It also expects longer-term income from license fees and royalties on its patents, technology, software and secure domain name registry. These are planned revenue sources, not an established large-scale business.

Commercial progress depends on customer adoption and lengthy purchasing decisions, particularly for government and defense work. Encryption export and import licensing rules also restrict where and how some products can be sold.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in VHC’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

VHC says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

VirnetX’s longer-term results hinge on turning patents and cybersecurity products into revenue; Appgate and Illumio are also primary zero-trust competitors to watch outside this list.

  • Cloudflare competes directly with VirnetX in controlling secure access to networks, selling businesses network security and cloud-delivered access services. Watch customers adding security products to Cloudflare’s existing suite: its bundled offerings are a competitive risk to VirnetX’s cybersecurity sales.

  • Zscaler competes with VirnetX for enterprise and government security customers, selling subscriptions that secure access to applications and networks. Its business with large enterprises and government agencies is the customer base to watch for competition facing VirnetX.

  • Network-1 Technologies, Inc. shares VirnetX’s reliance on getting paid for the right to use patented technology, though Network-1 also pursues patent enforcement. Watch licensing from its remaining portfolios: its Remote Power and Mirror Worlds patents have expired and it no longer intends to monetize them.

  • Acacia Research Corporation’s patent business shares VirnetX’s need to turn technology rights into licensing payments, with Acacia also enforcing those rights. Watch licensing revenue alongside the costs of pursuing it, which Acacia’s subsidiaries bear.

  • Netskope, Inc. competes with VirnetX’s cybersecurity offerings by selling enterprises subscriptions to cloud-based security and networking services. Its Netskope One subscription revenue is the line to watch, rather than hardware or professional services.

  • Palo Alto Networks competes with VirnetX for enterprise security spending by selling integrated platforms that replace separate security products. Watch its push to consolidate customers’ security tools, which puts VirnetX’s products up against a broader package.

  • Cisco competes with VirnetX through the networking and security products it sells to enterprises, but those are only part of Cisco’s broader business. Watch its security offerings rather than treating results across collaboration, observability and other products as a direct read on VirnetX.

Agenda

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Acacia Research Corporation earningsACTG

    Acacia Research's report will show whether patent licensing revenue can outpace the costs of pursuing patent rights, testing a monetization path VirnetX also hopes to use.

in 25 daysFri, Nov 13

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    VirnetX Holding Corp earningsThis company

    VirnetX's report will show whether its cybersecurity products, partner sales and patent rights are bringing in enough revenue to support the business.

in 36 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced

    Zscaler, Inc. earningsZS

    Zscaler's report will show whether large enterprises and government customers keep spending on subscriptions for secure access to applications and networks, where VirnetX faces competition.