UNB in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Union Bankshares is the holding company for Union Bank, its sole subsidiary, serving individuals, businesses and local public bodies in northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire. The bank uses customer deposits as its main source of funds for loans and investments. Borrowers pay interest on loans, which generate most of its interest income; the bank also earns fees from banking services, mortgage servicing and wealth management, and gains from selling residential mortgages.
Earnings depend chiefly on how much interest the bank earns after paying interest on deposits and borrowings. To support lending growth, it has relied more on borrowings and purchased deposits, which generally cost more than local customer deposits. Changing interest rates and competition for deposits therefore affect its main source of earnings. Much of its lending is secured by real estate in Vermont and New Hampshire, tying repayment and collateral values to the local economy.
Banking rules constrain lending, investments and other activities and require minimum capital. The holding company receives most of its own income through interest and dividends from Union Bank, whose dividend payments are also subject to regulatory limits.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Bar Harbor Bankshares competes with Union Bankshares for household and business banking customers in Vermont and New Hampshire, including borrowers buying homes and commercial property. Watch its rates and terms on those loans for the competition Union faces in winning borrowers.
First United Corp offers a comparison for Union Bankshares on deposit pricing and loan demand: both run similarly sized local banks that use deposits to fund business and home loans and also provide trust services. First United serves Maryland and West Virginia; watch the rates it offers depositors and charges business and mortgage borrowers.
CB Financial Services, Inc. (PA) gives Union Bankshares holders a similarly sized community-bank comparison, with both lending to residential, commercial, construction and municipal borrowers. Its deposit costs and the credit quality of local property and business loans are the useful points to compare, rather than treating its Pennsylvania and West Virginia markets as Union's own.
Landmark Bancorp Inc and Union Bankshares have similar-sized banks that mainly earn the difference between interest received from borrowers and interest paid for funding. Landmark's income from selling home loans and collecting loan-servicing fees also gives a comparison for Union's residential mortgage sales and servicing business.
FIRST NATL CORP STRASBURG VA shares Union Bankshares' reliance on deposit-funded lending and long-term relationships with individuals, small and medium-sized businesses, nonprofits and local governments. Watch the gap between its interest income and interest expense—net interest income—which is the largest revenue source for both banks.
Bar Harbor Bankshares earningsBHB
Bar Harbor Bankshares' report will show how loan demand and pricing are changing as it seeks home and commercial-property borrowers in Vermont and New Hampshire—the same customers Union Bankshares competes to win.
Look at demand for home and commercial-property loans alongside the rates and terms offered. Steady demand without easier pricing would suggest local banks can still win borrowers on firm terms, leaving Union Bankshares under less pressure to compete. Weak demand or more borrower-friendly terms would point to tighter competition for Union's loan customers.
Union Bankshares, Inc earningsThis company
Union Bankshares earns mainly from interest on loans and investments and funds them with deposits and borrowings; this report will show whether that income is outpacing funding costs and borrowers are keeping up with payments.
Read net interest income alongside past-due and nonperforming loans and credit losses. Rising net interest income with stable credit quality would mean returns on lending and investments are covering deposit and borrowing costs without repayment problems erasing the gain. Slower income growth or higher credit losses would show funding pressure or borrower stress eating into earnings.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For Union Bank, the Fed’s rate decision matters because economy-wide rates affect what the bank earns on loans and investments and pays on deposits and borrowings, changing net interest income—the difference between that interest earned and paid.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If rates rise more than expected, yields on repricing loans and new lending may increase, but Union Bank may also pay more for deposits and borrowings; the net effect depends on which changes faster and by how much.
If it comes in below expectations
If rates rise less than expected or fall, yields on repricing loans and new lending may increase less or decline, while deposit and borrowing costs may also rise less or decline; the net effect depends on which changes faster and by how much.