Stock daily read

What happened with TXMD today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TXMD in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Drug companies sell TherapeuticsMD’s licensed women’s healthcare products and pay it a share of sales. The company formerly developed and commercialized products but now conducts no research, development, manufacturing or commercial distribution itself. All its revenue comes from product royalties, primarily through Mayne Pharma.

Mayne holds exclusive U.S. commercialization rights for IMVEXXY, BIJUVA, ANNOVERA and prescription prenatal vitamins under the BocaGreenMD and vitaMedMD brands. It pays TherapeuticsMD royalties based on net sales, with contractual minimum payments and additional payments if sales reach specified milestones. Knight Therapeutics holds Canadian rights to IMVEXXY and BIJUVA, while Theramex holds rights elsewhere outside the United States, including Israel.

Income depends on these licensees selling the products and maintaining access to compliant manufacturers. Under the Mayne agreement, a product’s royalty rate falls when its last covering patent expires or is revoked, or a U.S. generic launches, whichever happens first. The royalty obligation also has a fixed end date, after which the licensed products become royalty-free. The drugs remain subject to regulatory approval and ongoing safety, manufacturing, labeling and promotion requirements; restrictions on their sale or loss of approval can reduce the royalties TherapeuticsMD receives.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TXMD’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TXMD says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

TherapeuticsMD’s results hinge on licensed-product sales by its primary royalty partner, Mayne Pharma, and by Theramex and Knight Therapeutics, none of which appears in this list.

  • Teva’s bid to sell generic IMVEXXY threatens TherapeuticsMD’s royalties from Mayne Pharma’s sales of the licensed medicine. Watch whether Teva wins approval and launches in the United States: competition could cut IMVEXXY sales, while a generic launch would lower its royalty rate to 2%.

  • Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. has settlement rights to sell generic BIJUVA in the United States from May 2032, or earlier under specified circumstances, putting TherapeuticsMD’s royalties from Mayne Pharma’s BIJUVA sales at risk. Watch the launch timing: generic competition could reduce BIJUVA sales, and a generic launch would lower its royalty rate to 2%.

Agenda

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earningsAMRX

    Amneal Pharmaceuticals’ report will show how its generic BIJUVA effort is progressing, a potential threat to Mayne’s branded sales and TherapeuticsMD’s royalties.

  2. Time to be announced

    Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited earningsTEVA

    Teva’s report will show how its generic IMVEXXY effort is progressing, which could affect Mayne’s branded sales and TherapeuticsMD’s royalties.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    TherapeuticsMD, Inc. earningsThis company

    TherapeuticsMD collects royalties when its licensees sell its products, and this report will show whether those sales can keep supporting its cash-strained royalty business.