Stock daily read

What happened with TSBK today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TSBK in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Timberland Bancorp’s main business is Timberland Bank, which takes deposits from consumers and businesses and lends in Washington state. Customer deposits provide its main funding source. Borrowers pay interest on loans, and the bank also earns interest on investments; most of its earnings come from what remains after paying interest on deposits and borrowings.

Lending centers on real estate, with commercial properties, construction, apartment buildings and land together making up most of the loan portfolio. The bank also makes home mortgages and business and consumer loans. It generally originates fixed-rate home mortgages for sale, and sales to Freddie Mac have historically supplied a significant share of its income outside interest.

The business depends on retaining deposits, the gap between lending yields and funding costs, and borrowers’ ability to repay, particularly from local property income. Both lending and deposits are concentrated in Washington, tying the bank closely to local economic and real-estate conditions. Federal capital requirements and legal limits on lending to any one borrower constrain how much it can lend.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TSBK’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TSBK says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Heritage Financial Corp’s Olympia-based Heritage Bank competes with Timberland for Washington business deposits, commercial borrowers and construction loans. Watch its deposit relationships with small and medium-sized businesses and their owners: Timberland also seeks business deposits to fund its lending.

  • FS Bancorp, Inc.’s 1st Security Bank competes with Timberland for Washington deposit customers and borrowers seeking residential, construction and commercial real estate loans.

  • First Northwest Bancorp’s First Fed competes with Timberland for Puget Sound real estate borrowers and banking relationships. Watch the rates, fees and loan terms First Fed offers: it reports particularly intense lending competition in larger Puget Sound markets such as Seattle.

Agenda

todayTue, Oct 20

  1. Time to be announced

    FS Bancorp, Inc. earningsFSBW

    FS Bancorp’s report will show whether the fight for Washington deposits and real-estate borrowers is raising Timberland’s funding costs or squeezing what it earns on loans.

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Heritage Financial Corp earningsHFWA

    Heritage Financial’s report will show whether Washington small and midsize businesses are keeping deposits with local banks, a key source of funding for Timberland’s loans.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Timberland Bank, the Fed’s rate decision shapes what it earns on loans and investments versus what it pays depositors and borrowing providers, affecting the interest income left after funding costs.