Stock daily read

What happened with TGEN today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TGEN in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Commercial and industrial customers buy Tecogen’s equipment to generate electricity, hot water and cooling at their own facilities. Its natural-gas engines produce power and recover waste heat for use on site. Products include InVerde power-generation units and Tecochill chillers.

Maintenance services bring in most of the revenue, with equipment sales the next-largest source. Most equipment sales come with a service arrangement, expanding the installed fleet Tecogen can maintain. Customers typically pay annual maintenance-contract fees based on operating hours, covering unscheduled repairs and engine replacements. A smaller business, subsidiary ADGE, owns systems at customer sites and sells their energy and cooling under long-term agreements rather than selling the equipment.

The business depends on maintaining service relationships and winning equipment orders, which can be large and infrequent; one customer contributes a significant share of revenue. The appeal of its combined electricity-and-heat systems depends on natural-gas prices relative to electricity prices. Installation and grid connection also depend on government and utility requirements, and utilities may impose extra charges on customers who retain grid backup.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TGEN’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TGEN says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Vertiv gives Tecogen a route into data-center cooling: it supplies cooling infrastructure to data centers and markets Tecogen’s DTx chillers, exclusively outside the United States and non-exclusively within it. Watch Vertiv’s progress selling DTx chillers as evidence of whether this potential growth market is turning into business for Tecogen.

  • Johnson Controls and Tecogen both depend on commercial and industrial customers buying cooling equipment and paying to maintain installed systems. Johnson Controls’ maintenance, retrofit and replacement business offers a read on the customer spending that also supports Tecogen’s equipment sales and recurring service revenue.

  • AAON competes with Tecogen for commercial and industrial cooling projects, selling equipment configured to customers’ needs, and both target data-center cooling. Watch AAON’s data-center cooling business for a view of demand in a market Tecogen hopes to enter.

  • Carrier competes with Tecogen’s Tecochill systems for customers’ building-cooling projects through its commercial chillers. Both also earn revenue from servicing installed equipment, making Carrier a comparison for equipment purchases and ongoing service demand.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Johnson Controls International plc earningsJCI

    Johnson Controls’ report will show whether commercial and industrial customers’ spending on cooling equipment and maintenance is also supporting Tecogen’s orders and service contracts.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Vertiv Holdings Co earningsVRT

    Vertiv’s report will show whether data-center cooling demand is turning into Tecogen business through Vertiv’s marketing of its DTx chillers.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Carrier Global Corporation earningsCARR

    Carrier’s report will show whether customers are still buying commercial chillers and paying to maintain installed equipment, markets where Tecogen competes for projects and service revenue.

in 22 daysWed, Nov 11

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Tecogen Inc. earningsThis company

    Tecogen’s report will show whether equipment sales growth is supporting revenue and margins alongside its much larger service business.