What happened with AAON today?
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AAON supplies equipment that heats, ventilates and cools commercial and industrial buildings, mainly in the United States. Property owners and contractors buy its systems for new buildings or to replace existing equipment. Most revenue comes from AAON-branded products, which the company builds to order around customer specifications and sells mainly through independent manufacturers’ representatives.
Its BASX brand supplies highly customized cooling equipment, including liquid-cooling systems for data centers, as well as cleanroom ventilation systems. BASX uses an internal sales force and depends heavily on data-center customers. Although AAON serves a broad customer base through its representative network, a few large customers in data-center cooling and commercial air conditioning account for a substantial share of sales.
Demand depends on building construction, equipment replacement and data-center investment. The business also relies on independent representatives to reach buyers, while data-center customers can defer or cancel orders under their contract terms. Refrigerant and energy-efficiency rules constrain equipment design; AAON has already switched its HVAC systems to the lower-global-warming-potential refrigerant required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
AAON relies on commercial HVAC construction and replacement demand and increasingly on hyperscale liquid-cooling investment, with Daikin and Munters important competitors to watch outside this list.
Modine competes with AAON for data-center cooling and commercial heating, cooling and ventilation equipment purchases. Its separate Data Centers and Commercial HVAC segments from fiscal 2027 offer a clearer view of these two markets that matter to AAON.
Vertiv competes with AAON to sell air and liquid cooling to data-center customers. Watch its liquid-cooling business alongside AAON’s BASX backlog, whose increase in 2025 came mostly from data-center liquid-cooling solutions.
Trane Technologies competes with AAON for commercial customers buying heating, cooling and ventilation systems and building controls. Its Americas commercial HVAC and controls business is the relevant comparison, rather than its residential or transport refrigeration operations.
Johnson Controls challenges AAON in commercial HVAC purchases and, through Silent-Aire, in data-center cooling. Its maintenance, retrofit and replacement work for existing building customers also shows the market AAON emphasizes when new construction weakens.
Carrier competes with AAON for property owners’ and contractors’ purchases of commercial equipment that cools occupied buildings. Carrier’s company-wide equipment and service sales are broader than this overlap, so commercial cooling is the business to watch.
Lennox International competes with AAON for commercial customers buying packaged heating and cooling units and equipment that cools occupied buildings. Its range of brands and price points matters when customers choose between AAON’s customized, higher-performing equipment and lower-priced standard products.
nVent Electric competes for the hyperscale data-center customers that buy air and liquid cooling from AAON’s BASX business. Watch cooling in nVent’s Systems Protection business, which sells to hyperscalers, rather than treating all its electrical protection sales as a comparison for AAON.
Comfort Systems USA shares AAON’s exposure to construction and equipment replacement: customers pay it to install and replace commercial mechanical systems, while AAON makes cooling equipment for those markets. Its technology-sector revenue, 45.0% of 2025 sales, is worth watching alongside its commercial installation and replacement work.
Eaton sells electrical and modular infrastructure to hyperscale data centers whose construction also creates demand for AAON’s cooling equipment. Its expansion of modular offerings for those customers through Fibrebond is a concrete development to watch alongside BASX’s hyperscale cooling business.
EMCOR shares AAON’s exposure to commercial building investment: customers pay EMCOR to install and maintain HVAC and mechanical systems, while AAON manufactures equipment for the same markets. Its U.S. mechanical construction and building-services businesses are the useful areas to watch for new-building and retrofit activity.
IES Holdings shares AAON’s exposure to data-center and commercial facility construction: customers pay IES to install electrical and technology systems, while AAON supplies cooling equipment for those facilities. IES’s repeat work for technology customers in its Communications business is more relevant to this tie than its residential housing work.
Housing Starts (Sep)
For AAON, home and building construction readings track how much new building is underway, which can influence demand for its commercial and industrial HVAC equipment sold to property owners and contractors.
Expected1.3MLast release1.275M
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 1.3M estimate, it is above the previous 1.275M. More building can support demand for AAON rooftop units, air handlers and related equipment, helping sales volume and potentially profitability; the effect may take time to reach reported revenue as projects progress.
If it comes in below expectations
Less building can weaken demand for AAON’s rooftop units, air handlers and related equipment, reducing sales volume and potentially profitability; fewer projects may also slow revenue as work progresses.
Modine Manufacturing Co earningsMOD
Modine’s report separates data-center cooling from commercial HVAC, showing how demand is moving in both markets AAON serves.
Read Modine’s data-center and commercial HVAC sales and profitability separately. Strength in both would point to demand supporting AAON in data-center cooling and established commercial equipment; strength only in data centers would show demand concentrated in BASX’s market, with traditional commercial business potentially still under pressure.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For AAON, the Fed’s policy rate—the rate that helps set borrowing costs across the economy—can change what it pays to borrow against its revolver.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher rates can raise the interest expense on AAON’s borrowings as they reprice and make future borrowing more costly, leaving less cash for operations and investment.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower rates can reduce the interest expense on AAON’s borrowings as they reprice and make future borrowing less costly, leaving more cash for operations and investment.
Aaon Inc earningsThis company
AAON’s report will show whether BASX is turning data-center liquid-cooling orders into profitable sales while its established HVAC business holds up.
Read BASX sales alongside its gross margin, then check whether AAON Oklahoma sales hold steady. Rising BASX sales with a recovering margin would show liquid-cooling orders converting into more profitable deliveries; rising sales with a falling margin would mean costs or project mix are still squeezing the profit from growth. Steady AAON Oklahoma sales would show growth beyond data centers; continued decline would leave the established business a drag.
Industrial Production MoM (Oct)
For AAON, factory, mine and utility activity signals demand across commercial and industrial markets, which can affect purchases of its AAON-brand HVAC equipment and the sales and profit those orders generate.
Higher factory, mine or utility output and capacity use would indicate stronger industrial activity, which may support customer purchases of AAON-brand equipment; weaker readings would indicate less support and could weigh on sales and profitability.
