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What happened with TER today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TER in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
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Company

Company overview

Teradyne’s main business helps chip companies check whether their products work correctly during manufacturing, from wafers through packaged chips and complete systems. Chip designers, manufacturers, foundries and outsourced assembly and test providers buy its equipment and related services to improve quality and production yields. Semiconductor Test supplies most of the company’s revenue, and equipment sales contribute much more than services. Its UltraFLEXplus tester serves complex computing chips, including those used in AI and data centers.

Its smaller businesses extend beyond chip testing. Product Test sells equipment and services for testing electronic and photonic components and assemblies, including defense and aerospace systems. Robotics sells Universal Robots collaborative arms and Mobile Industrial Robots autonomous mobile robots to manufacturing and logistics customers, principally through distributors and equipment manufacturers.

Demand depends on customers’ spending on manufacturing equipment. A small group of major customers drives a substantial share of sales, sometimes by choosing a test platform that their supply partners then purchase. This means the company depends on both direct buyers and the customers directing those purchases. Export controls and sanctions also limit which products Teradyne can sell and which customers it can support; some transactions are prohibited and others require licenses.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TER’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TER says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Teradyne’s results hinge chiefly on semiconductor test investment, increasingly driven by AI chips, with Advantest—the important rival missing from this list—the company to watch for competition.

  • Cohu Inc competes with Teradyne for chipmakers’ and outsourced test providers’ spending on automated chip-testing equipment. Watch Cohu’s test and inspection system sales for signs of investment in test capacity, rather than treating its recurring parts, software and service revenue as the same signal.

  • ASE buys Teradyne testers to test chips for its customers, making its equipment purchases a direct source of demand for Teradyne. Watch ASE’s testing-capacity plans: most tester purchases follow discussions with customers about their forecast requirements.

  • FormFactor supplies the contacts that connect wafers to electrical test equipment—probe cards—complementing the wafer-level testers Teradyne sells to chipmakers and test providers. Its probe-card sales offer a view of wafer-test demand and the need to test increasingly complex chips.

  • Amkor’s need for testing capacity supports demand for the kinds of testers Teradyne sells, without establishing that Amkor buys from Teradyne. Amkor charges chipmakers, chip designers, equipment makers and foundries for packaging and testing; watch its wafer-probe, system-level and final-test capacity plans.

  • Aehr Test Systems and Teradyne sell to overlapping semiconductor manufacturing customers, but Aehr supplies systems that burn in chips and test reliability while Teradyne supplies production testers. Watch Aehr’s wafer-level and package-level burn-in sales as a view of reliability-test spending, not a direct measure of Teradyne’s tester demand.

  • Keysight competes with Teradyne’s Product Test business for electronic test and measurement spending, selling hardware, software and services to electronics and communications customers. Its manufacturing-test business is the closer comparison: most Keysight revenue comes from research and development applications.

  • inTEST competes with Teradyne in hardware that positions test heads and connects them to other equipment—manipulators, docking hardware and tester interfaces—sold to semiconductor and electronics manufacturers and test-equipment makers. Watch these Electronic Test products, rather than inTEST’s heating or imaging businesses, for the closest read on that competition.

  • Lam Research and Teradyne both depend on chipmakers’ capacity and technology investment: Lam sells equipment to make chips on wafers, while Teradyne sells equipment to test them. Lam’s business with memory makers and foundries offers context for the manufacturing investment behind chip-test demand.

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  • Applied Materials shares Teradyne’s semiconductor investment cycle, selling chip-fabrication and advanced-packaging equipment to manufacturers while Teradyne sells testers. Watch its Semiconductor Systems business for the manufacturing side of that cycle, rather than treating all service revenue as new capacity spending.

  • KLA and Teradyne benefit when chipmakers invest in reliably producing more complex chips: KLA sells equipment to monitor and control manufacturing processes, while Teradyne sells electrical testers. KLA’s Semiconductor Process Control business is the relevant area to watch for spending on productivity and manufacturing yields.

  • Onto Innovation and Teradyne share exposure to chipmaking and advanced-packaging investment: Onto sells tools that measure structures and inspect defects, while Teradyne sells testers for the resulting chips. Watch Onto’s business with chip fabricators and advanced-packaging manufacturers for spending on controlling production quality.

Agenda

in 2 daysWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Lam Research Corp earningsLRCX

    Lam Research sells chipmaking equipment to memory makers and foundries, so its report will show whether those customers’ investment is supporting the manufacturing cycle behind Teradyne’s tester demand.

in 8 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Teradyne, Inc. earningsThis company

    Teradyne earns most of its revenue from semiconductor test, and this report will show whether that business can sustain growth while product gross margin holds up.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Cohu Inc earningsCOHU

    Cohu competes with Teradyne for chipmakers’ and outsourced test providers’ spending on automated test equipment, and its system sales will show whether those customers are adding test capacity.

  2. Time to be announced

    FormFactor Inc. earningsFORM

    FormFactor supplies probe cards that connect wafers to test equipment, so its sales offer a read on wafer-level testing activity relevant to demand for Teradyne’s wafer testers.

in 10 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. earningsASX

    ASE’s report will show how it plans testing capacity; because ASE buys Teradyne testers, those plans offer a direct view of how its customers’ needs could shape potential demand for Teradyne.

in 35 daysMon, Nov 23

  1. Time to be announced

    Keysight Technologies, Inc. earningsKEYS

    Keysight’s manufacturing-test business competes with Teradyne’s Product Test business for electronic test spending, so its report will show whether that customer market is still investing.