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What happened with SWIM today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

SWIM in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Latham Group, Inc. serves homeowners building or maintaining backyard pools, but dealers and distributors are its main paying customers. It sells fiberglass pools directly to dealers, who resell them to homeowners, while Latham delivers the pools from its factories to homeowners’ backyards. Other products also pass through distributors that stock and supply dealers. Its website and pool-visualizer app help homeowners choose products and send prospective buyers to dealers.

In-ground pools are its largest revenue line, with covers and liners supplying the rest. Vinyl liners form the interior surface of vinyl pools and need periodic replacement, giving Latham a substantial source of repeat sales beyond new pool construction.

The business depends on dealers and distributors completing sales to homeowners. A small group of these customers supplies a large share of revenue, and the largest distributor alone contributes a substantial portion. New-pool demand depends on households’ willingness to spend and access to financing; sales are seasonal, and cold or rainy weather can delay installations. Products must meet building codes and safety rules, while local water-use restrictions can limit pool installations.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in SWIM’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

SWIM says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Latham’s results hinge on homeowners buying new pools and covers, recurring liner replacements and installation weather; Home Depot’s pool business offers only a partial view of those drivers.

  • Home Depot shares Latham’s exposure to spending by pool owners and installers: its SRS business distributes pool products, while Latham makes pools, covers and liners sold through dealers and distributors to homeowners. Watch news from SRS’s pool business for clues about installation, remodeling and maintenance spending, rather than Home Depot’s broader home-improvement sales.

Agenda

tomorrowTue, Oct 20

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Housing Starts (Sep)

    Latham sells pools through dealers and distributors, so the release’s readings on new homes being built or sold help show whether housing activity may support or constrain purchases of its pools.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Latham’s Fed rate decision matters because higher or lower policy rates can change the interest Latham pays on its variable-rate Term Loan.

in 15 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Latham Group, Inc. earningsThis company

    Latham Group’s report will show whether selling more pools, covers and liners is translating into a higher gross margin.

in 29 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. Time to be announced

    Home Depot, Inc. earningsHD

    Home Depot’s report can show through SRS’s pool business whether owner and installer spending on installation, remodeling and maintenance is supporting demand in Latham Group’s dealer and distributor channels.