SLM in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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SLM Corporation, commonly known as Sallie Mae, lends to U.S. students and families whose higher-education costs exceed what savings, income, scholarships and government aid can cover. Its main product is the Smart Option Student Loan. Borrowers can make payments while in school or defer them until afterward. These are private loans, not loans made, insured or guaranteed by a government.
Sallie Mae Bank gathers federally insured deposits to help fund the lending. Most earnings come from interest borrowers pay on loans the company holds, less the interest it pays depositors and other funding providers. It also borrows against pools of loans and sells some loans to third-party buyers. Sales replenish funds for new lending and can generate gains; Sallie Mae typically continues managing repayments on sold loans for servicing fees and also earns program-management fees from strategic partners.
The business depends on families needing funding beyond other education resources, borrowers repaying their loans, and Sallie Mae obtaining funding at competitive rates. It bears the full credit risk on loans it holds and uses credit screening and qualified cosigners to manage that exposure. The Bank must meet regulatory capital requirements, which can constrain lending growth, and legal and regulatory limits can restrict transfers of Bank funds to the parent company.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Sallie Mae’s results hinge on private student-loan demand, credit quality and funding costs, with privately held College Ave another important competitor to watch.
Navient’s Earnest competes with Sallie Mae for students borrowing for college and for existing borrowers replacing their loans through refinancing. Watch Earnest’s loans to undergraduate and graduate students and its refinancing for high-quality borrowers: both put pressure on Sallie Mae’s lending business.
SoFi Technologies competes with Sallie Mae both to fund education and to replace borrowers’ existing student loans through refinancing. Its digital platform encourages members to take up additional financial products, making its education-loan and refinancing offers worth watching for pressure on Sallie Mae’s borrower relationships.
Citizens Financial Group competes with Sallie Mae to lend to students and families paying for education, alongside its broader banking services for individuals and businesses. Its private education-loan pricing and customer service are the parts to watch for competition over those borrowers.
Nelnet competes with Sallie Mae through Nelnet Bank’s private student lending, while its larger student-loan holdings and business managing loans for other owners also face education-finance conditions that affect Sallie Mae.
PNC Financial Services Group competes with Sallie Mae to make private education loans, but student lending is a smaller part of its broader banking business for individuals, companies and institutions. Watch its education-loan pricing and lending standards rather than treating its overall banking results as a read on Sallie Mae.
SLM Corporation earningsThis company
Sallie Mae's report will show whether it can grow private education lending while keeping loan income strong and credit losses in check.
Read private education loan originations alongside net interest income and credit-loss measures. Rising originations with net interest income keeping pace and no deterioration in provisions or delinquencies would show demand is turning into income while repayment risk remains contained. Weaker originations, pressure on net interest income or rising credit losses would point to demand, funding costs or borrowers' ability to repay weighing on the business.
Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/17)
Weekly jobless claims count new applications for unemployment benefits, and matter to Sallie Mae because worsening employment can make borrowers on its unsecured Private Education Loans less able to repay, raising credit losses.
Expected200.0KLast release199.0K
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 200.0K estimate, it is above the previous 199.0K. More claims could signal rising layoffs and repayment stress for Sallie Mae’s loan borrowers, potentially increasing credit-loss provisions and reducing earnings.
If it comes in below expectations
Fewer claims could signal a more resilient job market, easing repayment pressure for Sallie Mae’s loan borrowers and potentially limiting credit losses.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Sallie Mae’s earnings depend heavily on the interest it earns on Private Education Loans minus what it pays for deposits and other funding, so Fed rate decisions matter through the cost of funding those loans.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher rates could raise what Sallie Mae pays for deposits and other funding, squeezing the difference between loan interest income and funding costs unless loan yields rise enough to offset it.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower rates could reduce what Sallie Mae pays for deposits and other funding, supporting the difference between loan interest income and funding costs, though loan yields may also fall.
Navient Corporation earningsNAVI
Navient's report will show whether its Earnest lending and refinancing offers are intensifying competition for Sallie Mae's student borrowers.
Watch Earnest's lending to undergraduate and graduate students alongside its refinancing activity. Stronger activity in both would show Earnest attracting more borrowers in markets Sallie Mae also serves, making it harder for Sallie Mae to win loan customers; a slowdown would offer less evidence that Earnest is taking that demand.
Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)
The monthly jobs report counts payroll jobs added or lost, and matters to Sallie Mae because weakening employment can make borrowers on its unsecured Private Education Loans less able to repay, raising credit losses.
More jobs added suggest stronger hiring and income that could support repayments on Sallie Mae’s unsecured loans; fewer jobs suggest employment strain that could increase borrower stress and credit losses.