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What happened with SLDP today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

SLDP in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Solid Power is developing a sulfide-based material to replace the liquid or gel electrolyte in conventional lithium-ion batteries, initially targeting electric vehicles. It currently produces material for customer testing and makes pilot cells for development. Its intended commercial business is to sell electrolyte to battery manufacturers and automakers that build their own cells, and license cell designs and manufacturing processes—not manufacture commercial battery cells itself.

Most revenue currently comes from partner agreements, chiefly work for SK On. SK On pays against milestones for research licensing and the design and installation of a pilot cell production line, and buys electrolyte to validate that line. Its existing license permits research and development, not commercial cell production. Government contracts and grants also contribute revenue and development funding, although continued grant funding is not assured. Historically, share sales have supplied most of the company’s cash.

The technology remains in development, with no established commercial market for sulfide solid electrolyte. Commercial sales depend on partners validating batteries that use it and Solid Power producing consistent material at acceptable cost and scale. The company relies on a small group of partners, including SK On, BMW and Samsung SDI, and has not agreed key commercial sales or licensing terms with any partner.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in SLDP’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

SLDP says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Solid Power’s results hinge on technical validation and commercialization with SK On, Samsung SDI and BMW, with SK On agreements currently providing most collaborative revenue and government funding supporting production scale-up.

  • QuantumScape competes with Solid Power for automakers and battery manufacturers adopting solid-state batteries: QuantumScape offers ceramic separator technology and licensing, while Solid Power plans to sell sulfide electrolyte and license cell technology. Watch QuantumScape’s manufacturing scale-up with PowerCo for progress by a rival seeking those customers.

  • SES AI Corporation’s lithium-metal cells and battery materials compete with Solid Power’s planned electrolyte sales for adoption in next-generation batteries. SES supplies cells for drones, robotics and electric vehicles; its EV cell development is the part most relevant to Solid Power’s intended customers—battery manufacturers and automakers making their own cells.

  • Tesla’s electric-vehicle demand and battery-cost developments help gauge the prospective market for Solid Power’s electrolyte, which it plans to sell to battery manufacturers and automakers making their own cells. Tesla sells fully electric vehicles and manufactures battery cells, so watch its vehicle demand and cell-production news rather than treating it as a confirmed Solid Power customer.

Agenda

in 2 daysWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    QuantumScape Corporation earningsQS

    QuantumScape’s report will show how its ceramic-separator cell manufacturing with PowerCo is progressing, giving automakers and battery makers Solid Power hopes to serve a read on a competing route.

  2. Time to be announced

    Tesla, Inc. earningsTSLA

    Tesla’s report will show how EV demand and battery costs are changing, helping gauge whether the potential market for Solid Power’s planned electrolyte sales is becoming easier to grow.

in 15 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Solid Power, Inc. earningsThis company

    Solid Power has not yet earned enough from commercial electrolyte sales or cell-technology licensing to cover its costs, and this report will show whether partner and grant revenue is keeping pace with development and pilot-line spending.