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What happened with SENS today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

SENS in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Senseonics helps people with diabetes continuously monitor glucose using Eversense. A healthcare professional places a long-lasting sensor under the skin; a removable, rechargeable transmitter sends readings and alerts to a mobile app. Nearly all revenue comes from Eversense sales in the United States and Europe, and continued use requires replacement sensors.

The company mainly sells through distributors and fulfillment partners that supply prescribed systems to healthcare providers and patients and bill insurers. It also sells through consignment arrangements with healthcare providers and sometimes earns revenue from sensor insertion and removal procedures. Adoption depends heavily on insurance covering both the device and those procedures, as well as providers being available to perform them.

Ascensia was previously its main buyer and exclusive distributor. Senseonics has taken over U.S. commercialization, while Ascensia continues non-exclusive sales and marketing during the transition in parts of Europe. European transfers depend on local agreements, tender requirements and regulatory conditions. Senseonics also relies entirely on contract manufacturers, with some materials principally coming from a single supplier. It can market products only where it has the required regulatory authorization, and product changes may need further approval.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in SENS’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

SENS says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Senseonics’ results hinge on insured patients adopting Eversense and its takeover of commercialization from Ascensia, which remains involved in the European transition.

  • Dexcom competes with Senseonics’ Eversense for diabetes patients and the clinicians prescribing continuous glucose monitors, while insurance reimbursement helps determine Eversense uptake. Watch Dexcom’s G6 and G7: neither requires users to calibrate the device, a convenience Eversense must compete against.

  • Abbott’s FreeStyle Libre competes directly with Senseonics’ Eversense for people choosing a glucose-monitoring system, with reimbursement important to Eversense sales. Watch Libre 2 and 3’s integration with insulin pumps: Senseonics expects competition from connected monitoring and insulin delivery to increase.

  • Medtronic competes with Senseonics’ Eversense for patients and prescribing clinicians by selling glucose monitors alongside insulin pumps and diabetes supplies. Its diabetes-product launches are worth watching for changes in monitoring accuracy, convenience and alerts—the features Senseonics identifies as key to Eversense’s competitiveness.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Abbott Laboratories earningsABT

    Abbott’s report will show whether Libre’s insulin-pump connections are strengthening its appeal to patients and prescribers, making it harder for Eversense to win users.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s decision tracks the cost of borrowing across the economy; higher rates can raise Senseonics’ floating loan interest and make the additional financing it needs for Eversense operations more costly or harder to secure.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Senseonics Holdings, Inc. earningsThis company

    Senseonics Holdings’ report will show whether Eversense sales and gross profit are keeping pace with the cost of taking over U.S. commercialization.