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What happened with DXCM today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

DXCM in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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Company

Company overview

DexCom helps people with diabetes track glucose levels throughout the day. Its sensors send readings to receivers or apps that show current levels and trends and warn users of changes. Its core market is people who use insulin, alongside some people who do not use insulin but struggle with low glucose. Products include G7 and G7 15 Day; Stelo is available without a prescription in the United States for adults with prediabetes or Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin.

Patients buy the systems and regularly replace disposable sensors, creating repeat sales alongside purchases of transmitters and receivers. Most revenue reaches DexCom through distributors, and the United States generates most of its sales. Certain individual distribution agreements account for substantial revenue, making those relationships important to the business.

Most customers rely on government or private insurance to cover their purchases, so access to coverage and the reimbursement rates insurers accept strongly influence demand and pricing. Medicare coverage includes people using insulin and certain people with a history of problematic low glucose, subject to eligibility requirements. DexCom also needs the required local marketing authorization—and, in some countries, pricing approval—before selling outside the United States.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in DXCM’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

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  • Could go wrong
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Moat

DXCM says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Abbott competes directly with Dexcom for diabetes patients buying sensors that continuously track glucose, including sensors used to automate insulin delivery. Watch FreeStyle Libre integrations with insulin-delivery systems: they extend the competition into devices that use glucose readings to adjust doses.

  • MiniMed Group, Inc. competes with Dexcom for people requiring intensive insulin therapy, selling both glucose sensors and systems that combine sensors with pumps to automate insulin delivery. Watch uptake of its integrated systems: MiniMed supplies its own sensors rather than relying on the sensor-and-pump partnerships Dexcom serves.

  • Insulet's Omnipod 5 adoption can support Dexcom sensor demand: its insulin-delivery pods use Dexcom glucose readings to adjust doses automatically for people with insulin-dependent diabetes. Watch uptake of Omnipod 5 with Dexcom G6 or G7, rather than total pump uptake, because the system also supports Abbott sensors in various markets.

  • Growth in Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.'s users of pumps that automate insulin delivery supports demand for compatible Dexcom glucose sensors; Tandem sells patients the pumps and regularly replaced cartridges and infusion sets. Watch growth in users choosing Dexcom G6 or G7, since Tandem's pumps also integrate with Abbott sensors.

  • Senseonics Holdings, Inc. competes with Dexcom's wearable glucose monitors by offering diabetes patients Eversense sensors implanted under the skin, primarily selling through distributors and fulfillment partners that bill insurers. Watch Eversense 365 sales as a measure of uptake for its sensor designed for up to twelve months of use.

  • Beta Bionics, Inc.'s iLet pump adoption can support Dexcom sensor demand because it uses glucose readings to determine insulin doses for U.S. adults and children aged six and older with Type 1 diabetes. Watch iLet uptake with Dexcom G6 or G7: Beta Bionics sells pumps and disposable supplies, but iLet also works with Abbott FreeStyle Libre 3 Plus.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Abbott Laboratories earningsABT

    Abbott's report will show whether FreeStyle Libre sensors and their integration with insulin-delivery systems are intensifying competition for Dexcom's sensor customers.

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Beta Bionics, Inc. earningsBBNX

    Beta Bionics' report will show whether more iLet pump users are choosing Dexcom G6 or G7 sensors, adding to demand for Dexcom's products.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    DexCom, Inc. earningsThis company

    Dexcom's report will show whether sensor sales are lifting revenue without supply and production costs eating into the gains.