Stock daily read

What happened with SBH today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

SBH in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Sally Beauty Holdings buys beauty products from suppliers rather than manufacturing them, with hair color and hair care generating most of its sales. Its larger business, Sally, sells to consumers and salon professionals through stores and online, offering both third-party brands and its own brands available only from Sally. Stores account for most of Sally’s revenue.

Beauty Systems Group (BSG) supplies salons and licensed beauty professionals exclusively in the United States and Canada. It sells mainly through stores, supplemented by online ordering and sales consultants. BSG also earns revenue by selling products to Armstrong McCall franchisees. Many of its third-party products carry exclusive distribution rights in particular territories.

The business depends on continued access to products from a relatively small group of major suppliers, including Henkel, L’Oréal, Wella, John Paul Mitchell Systems and Kao. Many supply agreements can end on short notice, and suppliers can widen distribution beyond the company’s channels. BSG’s manufacturer contracts may also require it to stop selling to customers suspected of diverting professional-only products to unapproved outlets.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in SBH’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

SBH says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Sally Beauty’s results hinge on consumer and stylist demand for hair color and care, and on access to Henkel, L’Oreal, Wella, John Paul Mitchell Systems and Kao, which together account for approximately 48% of merchandise purchases.

  • Ulta Beauty and Sally Beauty compete for consumers buying hair care, salon products and other beauty supplies in stores and online, leaving both exposed to spending on these products. Ulta’s hair care and salon-product sales are the parts to watch for clues to demand that also matters to Sally.

  • Amazon competes with Sally Beauty for beauty-supply shoppers by offering products from itself and third-party sellers online, with broad selection, low prices and convenient delivery. Watch Amazon’s pricing and delivery offers: Sally warns that competing online can raise delivery costs or move existing store customers online without bringing in new buyers, hurting profit.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Sally Beauty, the Fed’s policy-rate decision signals whether interest costs on its SOFR-linked Term Loan B may rise or fall, affecting earnings and cash available for the business.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Amazon.Com Inc earningsAMZN

    Amazon's report will show whether its online prices and delivery are drawing beauty-supply shoppers from Sally Beauty or forcing Sally to compete on price.

in 23 daysThu, Nov 12

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. earningsThis company

    Sally Beauty's report will show whether shoppers and salon professionals keep buying through its stores and online, and whether better product margins hold.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Retail sales track how much consumers spend at retailers; for Sally Beauty, stronger or weaker consumer spending may change purchases of its beauty supplies through Sally stores and e-commerce, affecting sales.