Stock daily read

What happened with RDHL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

RDHL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

RedHill Biopharma primarily advances clinical-stage medicines for gastrointestinal diseases, infectious diseases and cancer. Its candidates are not yet approved for sale. Hyloris Pharmaceuticals pays RedHill for rights to develop and commercialize RHB-102, also called Bekinda, outside the United States, Canada and Mexico. That license generates income through minimum annual payments, with additional payments tied to commercial targets and royalties on sales, subject to certain cost deductions.

RedHill also participates in sales of Talicia, an oral treatment approved in the United States for H. pylori infection in adults. It no longer sells Talicia directly: Talicia Holdings holds the global rights, and RedHill retains majority ownership but shares control with Cumberland. Cumberland supplies the U.S. sales organization and distribution, while Talicia Holdings supplies the medicine and bears manufacturing costs. The two companies share U.S. net revenue; RedHill’s benefit depends on Talicia Holdings’ performance and available cash.

Talicia’s business depends heavily on Cumberland, insurance reimbursement and third-party manufacturers. The development pipeline needs regulatory approval before its medicines can be marketed. RedHill also needs substantial additional funding: its available resources are insufficient to sustain operations, and management has expressed substantial doubt about its ability to continue operating.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in RDHL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

RDHL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

RedHill's results hinge on clinical-pipeline progress, Talicia partnership economics and Hyloris Pharmaceuticals' development and commercialization of licensed Bekinda outside North America.

  • RedHill's Talicia cash flows depend heavily on Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc, which sells and distributes the prescription medicine in the U.S.; the companies jointly control Talicia Holdings, which shares U.S. Talicia net revenues equally with Cumberland. Watch Cumberland's Talicia sales and commercialization spending: RedHill's benefit depends on Talicia Holdings' performance and cash position through its 70% stake.

  • Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. competes directly with RedHill's Talicia for U.S. sales of medicines treating adult H. pylori infection through its VOQUEZNA DUAL PAK and TRIPLE PAK. Watch sales of those two treatment packs rather than total VOQUEZNA revenue, which also includes tablets used for other conditions.

Agenda

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc earningsCPIX

    Cumberland Pharmaceuticals sells and distributes Talicia in the U.S., and its report will show whether that business is supporting the Talicia Holdings stake RedHill Biopharma owns.