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What happened with OPXS today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

OPXS in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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Company

Company overview

Optex Systems Holdings makes optical equipment that military personnel use to observe and aim. It generally manufactures to customers’ drawings, selling directly to government agencies and armed services or to defense contractors that incorporate its components into their equipment. Periscopes and laser filters account for most revenue. Its Richardson operation supplies periscopes and sighting systems for vehicles including Abrams and Stryker, while Applied Optics Center makes filters, coatings and optical assemblies for military and commercial uses.

The business overwhelmingly serves U.S. military programs. U.S. government agencies and four major U.S. defense contractors together provide most revenue; foreign military and commercial customers are a smaller part of the business. Orders depend on defense funding and procurement schedules, so government budget delays can hold up awards and payments.

Most government contracts set prices in advance, leaving Optex to absorb costs it cannot recover from customers. Many materials and components come from a single supplier, and government contracts can require approved U.S. suppliers. Replacing a supplier can therefore require new tooling and qualification, delaying production and adding costs.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in OPXS’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

OPXS says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
  • Limited
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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Optex’s results hinge on military vehicle and night-vision orders, including business with BAE Systems; direct rivals Gus Periscopes and Materion-Barr are absent from this list.

  • General Dynamics buys defense components from Optex, tying Optex’s periscope demand to military ground-vehicle programs such as Abrams that support General Dynamics’ Land Systems business. Watch Abrams contract awards: Optex linked part of its weaker periscope demand to delayed replenishment awards to prime contractors.

  • Elbit Systems buys optical equipment from Optex for its defense work, so military spending on optics and platform upgrades matters to both companies. Elbit’s electro-optic and laser business is the area to watch for clues to that shared demand, rather than its broader aircraft and naval systems sales.

  • Syntec Optics Holdings, Inc. overlaps with Optex in selling coated optical components and assemblies to defense customers, making it a useful comparison for military optics demand. Its biomedical, consumer and communications applications mean company-wide sales are not a clean gauge of the defense demand that matters to Optex.

  • Ducommun Incorporated’s military assembly work feeds component orders to Optex, which supplies optical products to Ducommun Aerostructures. Watch Ducommun’s Structural Systems business supplying military aircraft and ground vehicles to aerospace and defense customers, rather than treating all its electronics and commercial-aircraft sales as signals for Optex.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Optex, the Fed’s decision on its benchmark interest rate matters because higher rates can raise the interest it pays if it borrows under its variable-rate revolving credit facility.

in 10 daysFri, Oct 30

  1. Time to be announced

    General Dynamics Corporation earningsGD

    General Dynamics' Land Systems business will show whether military ground-vehicle programs that support Optex's periscope demand remain active.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    Ducommun Incorporated earningsDCO

    Ducommun Incorporated's Structural Systems business will show whether military aircraft and ground-vehicle assembly demand is supporting component orders connected to Optex's optical products.

in 35 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced

    Elbit Systems Ltd earningsESLT

    Elbit Systems' electro-optic and laser business will show how demand is moving for military optics and platform upgrades that Optex also serves.

in 57 daysWed, Dec 16

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Optex Systems Holdings, INC earningsThis company

    Optex Systems Holdings' report will show whether more deliveries of military optics can grow revenue while holding its gross margin.