Stock daily read

What happened with NRGV today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NRGV in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Energy Vault helps utilities, power producers and large energy users store electricity for later use, manage peak demand and provide backup power. Most revenue comes from selling battery storage systems. Customers pay it either to supply equipment and technical services or to deliver a complete project. For complete projects, it oversees engineering, integration and commissioning while outside contractors handle construction. Its B-VAULT equipment and VaultOS software combine storage hardware with monitoring and controls; it also licenses technology and software.

The company is shifting toward owning and operating selected storage assets while continuing to sell systems to customers. These assets earn payments under long-term energy arrangements: Gridmatic contracts for power from its Cross Trails battery project, while PG&E pays for energy services from the Calistoga Resiliency Center, which combines batteries and hydrogen fuel cells. Asset Vault is its subsidiary for developing and owning more storage projects.

Most revenue depends on two customers. Delivering projects also depends on outside component suppliers and construction contractors. Expanding the owned-asset business requires financing, contracted buyers for its energy services, government permits and authorization to connect projects to the grid.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NRGV’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NRGV says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Energy Vault’s results hinge on utility-scale storage construction and project financing; privately held FlexGen and overseas-listed Sungrow also compete for battery-storage projects.

  • Fluence Energy competes with Energy Vault for utilities’ and power developers’ spending on large battery-storage systems, controls and ongoing service. Its contracted storage backlog shows the scale of projects already committed to a rival.

  • Tesla’s storage systems and energy-management software compete with Energy Vault’s battery systems and controls for customer spending. For this rivalry, watch Tesla’s energy generation and storage revenue rather than its car business.

  • Eos Energy Enterprises competes with Energy Vault for utility and industrial projects needing hours of stored power. Eos sells ready-to-install battery systems built around its Z3 module, designed to discharge for 3 to 12 hours or longer—the product to watch in this longer-duration rivalry.

  • PG&E pays Energy Vault for long-term backup-power services from its Calistoga hydrogen-and-battery facility during wildfire-related safety shutoffs. PG&E’s utility sells electricity and gas in Northern and Central California; this contract connects that customer’s resiliency needs directly to Energy Vault’s operating revenue.

  • Energy Vault’s Calistoga backup-power facility uses hydrogen fuel-cell equipment supplied by Plug Power. That ties Plug Power’s stationary-power products directly to an asset Energy Vault operates.

Agenda

tomorrowThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    PG&E Corporation earningsPCG

    PG&E’s report offers a read on the finances and resilience needs of the utility customer whose Calistoga facility receives backup-power services from Energy Vault.

in 7 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s decision on its benchmark interest rate matters to Energy Vault because it can change what the company pays to borrow for storage projects and whether those projects are affordable to finance.

in 20 daysTue, Nov 10

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. earningsThis company

    Energy Vault’s report will show whether storage-project deliveries generate gross profit and whether revenue is broadening beyond a few large projects.

in 33 daysMon, Nov 23

  1. Time to be announced

    Fluence Energy, Inc. earningsFLNC

    Fluence Energy’s report will show how many storage projects utilities and power developers have committed to, indicating whether competition for the same work is intensifying or easing for Energy Vault.