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Nomura Holdings helps investors trade and manage investments and helps companies raise capital and carry out acquisitions. Its Wholesale business brings in most revenue, chiefly through Global Markets, which buys and sells bonds, shares, currencies and derivatives for institutional and corporate clients worldwide. Nomura earns trading income from this activity and commits its own capital to support client transactions. Its investment bankers also collect fees for arranging securities offerings and advising on corporate deals.
Another substantial business serves individuals and companies mainly in Japan through Nomura Securities branches and online services. Clients pay commissions when they trade securities or buy investment funds, and ongoing fees on managed assets. Nomura also manages funds for individual investors, pension funds and other institutions in Japan and overseas, primarily earning fees based on the value of assets it manages.
Revenue depends on clients continuing to trade, complete financing and advisory deals, and keep money invested with Nomura. Asset values affect management fees, while trading operations depend on access to borrowing and secured funding. As a holding company, Nomura relies heavily on payments from subsidiaries to meet its own obligations; company law and regulatory capital requirements can limit those transfers.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Nomura’s results hinge on Japanese investor assets and global trading and deal activity; Daiwa Securities is an important Japanese rival to watch beyond this list.
Morgan Stanley and Nomura share exposure to institutions’ securities business and individuals’ investment assets: both trade and raise capital for clients and provide wealth and investment management. Morgan Stanley’s Institutional Securities and investment-management results offer a read on the activity and asset values that also matter to Nomura.
Goldman Sachs competes with Nomura for clients’ bond and equity trades, capital raising, deal advice and investment management. Watch Goldman’s advisory and share- and debt-underwriting fees for a read on corporate deal and financing activity that also feeds Nomura’s investment bank.
Mizuho Financial Group competes with Nomura for Japanese investors’ securities and asset-management business and companies’ global investment-banking mandates. Its investment services for Japanese individuals and capital-markets business, particularly in the United States, are the areas to watch alongside Nomura.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group’s securities and asset-management subsidiaries compete with Nomura for Japanese investors’ assets and companies’ securities business. Those subsidiaries—not the group’s banking assets—are the relevant comparison for Nomura’s investment services and corporate capital raising.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group competes with Nomura for Japanese investors’ securities business and corporate financing and market-product business. Its services for consumers and companies in Japan, together with Global Markets products, are the relevant areas to follow rather than the whole banking group.
Jefferies Financial Group competes with Nomura to help companies raise money and advise on deals, and to handle institutions’ equity and bond business. Its Investment Banking and Capital Markets results are the closest read on the underwriting, advisory and trading activity that matters to Nomura’s Wholesale division.
Barclays Investment Bank competes with Nomura for institutional clients’ securities trades and financing, and for investment-banking business; both are exposed to global trading and corporate financing activity.
Citigroup competes with Nomura to serve securities investors, help companies raise capital and manage clients’ wealth. Citi’s Markets, Banking and Wealth revenues are the relevant lines to compare with Nomura, rather than its broader consumer-banking business.
JPMorgan Chase competes with Nomura for companies’ capital-raising and deal-advisory mandates and institutions’ investment-management business. Its investment-banking and asset-management results are the relevant comparison for the corporate and institutional demand Nomura serves.
Deutsche Bank competes with Nomura to handle clients’ global bond and currency trades and investment-banking business, exposing both to fixed-income trading flows and corporate financing activity.
Bank of America competes with Nomura to handle institutions’ trades, help companies raise capital and manage investors’ money. Its Global Markets and Global Wealth & Investment Management businesses give a more relevant comparison for Nomura than its U.S. consumer bank.
BlackRock and Nomura both earn fees on assets they manage for institutional investors and intermediaries across public and private markets, so asset values and investor flows matter to both. Watch BlackRock’s managed assets and investment-management fees for a read on the fee base that also drives Nomura’s Investment Management division.
HSBC Holdings competes with Nomura for international wealth clients and institutions’ foreign-exchange business, with substantial exposure to Asian clients. HSBC’s investment-distribution income and corporate and institutional foreign-exchange revenue offer clues to demand in businesses that also matter to Nomura.
Interactive Brokers competes with Nomura to execute trades across asset classes for institutional and individual investors, linking both to brokerage demand. Watch trading activity on Interactive Brokers’ automated platform alongside Nomura’s brokerage commissions, which come from helping clients carry out trades.
Barclays PLC earningsBCS
Barclays’ report will show how active institutional trading and corporate financing are in the global markets where it competes with Nomura.
Look at Barclays Investment Bank’s markets and investment-banking revenues. Strength in both would point to active institutional trading and corporate financing, a supportive setting for the global markets and investment-banking businesses Nomura shares. Weakness would point to softer activity or tougher competition, but Barclays’ figures alone cannot show whether Nomura lost clients. The read-through is about the shared pool of business, not Nomura’s market share.
HSBC Holdings PLC earningsHSBC
HSBC’s report will show whether investment-product distribution and corporate and institutional foreign-exchange business are active, offering clues about demand in businesses that also matter to Nomura.
Read HSBC’s investment-distribution income alongside revenue from corporate and institutional foreign exchange. Stronger distribution income points to demand for investment products sold through financial institutions; stronger foreign-exchange revenue points to activity among institutional clients, a business that overlaps with Nomura’s. If both weaken, demand in these related markets may be softer; if they diverge, treat product sales and FX activity as separate signals. This is a read on the surrounding markets, not Nomura’s own results.
Nomura Holdings, Inc earningsThis company
Nomura’s report will show whether global trading and Japanese wealth-management fees are growing faster than the compensation and other costs of earning them.
Compare net revenue, income before taxes and expenses in Wholesale and Wealth Management. If trading and client activity lift revenue and pretax income rises too, without expenses growing faster, Nomura is turning that activity into more profit. If revenue grows but pretax income stalls or falls, costs are absorbing the gains. The first outcome points to stronger earnings from Nomura’s businesses; the second shows that cost growth is limiting what the revenue gains deliver.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Fed’s decision on its policy rate can shift U.S. borrowing costs and rate expectations, changing market moves that affect Nomura’s Global Markets trading activity and results.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the rate is above expectations, higher borrowing costs may shift trading across debt and related derivatives, changing Global Markets’ client activity and trading results.
If it comes in below expectations
If the rate is below expectations, lower borrowing costs may shift trading across debt and related derivatives, changing Global Markets’ client activity and trading results.
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. earningsMFG
Mizuho’s report will show how Japanese investors are responding to securities and asset-management products in businesses where it competes with Nomura.
Focus on Mizuho’s investment services for Japanese individuals and its related asset-management business. Stronger relevant revenue or activity would suggest investors are still buying securities or investment products, supporting demand in the market where Nomura’s Japanese Wealth Management business operates. Weakness would point to softer demand or tougher competition. Mizuho’s results do not reveal Nomura’s sales; they show the direction of the market around them.
