Stock daily read

What happened with NCNO today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NCNO in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Banks, credit unions and mortgage lenders use the nCino Platform to bring customers on board, open accounts and process loans. It connects these tasks with automated workflows, data analysis and AI tools. These institutions pay nCino for access and support under multi-year contracts, generally billed annually in advance. Subscriptions provide most revenue; implementation, training and advisory services provide a smaller share.

nCino is moving from charging by user to pricing based on the assets of the customer business lines its platform supports. Its U.S. mortgage software also uses pricing tied to users or anticipated lending volume. The business depends on customers renewing and expanding their use across banking activities, and on their willingness to pay for AI capabilities. No single customer dominates revenue.

Fundamental parts of the platform run on Salesforce, and nCino pays Salesforce subscription fees. AWS supplies infrastructure for products including U.S. mortgage software and AI capabilities. These providers are central to delivering the service. Although nCino is not generally regulated like a bank, its customer contracts require compliant software and internal processes, including privacy and information-security protections.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NCNO’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NCNO says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Q2 Holdings and nCino compete for substantially the same banks and credit unions paying for digital banking and lending software. Watch Q2’s lending subscriptions and banks adding platform solutions for clues to spending by those shared buyers.

  • nCino depends on Salesforce’s application platform and hosting to deliver key parts of its banking software, and pays Salesforce for subscriptions bundled with certain solutions. Watch changes to those fees and the mix of Salesforce customer-management subscriptions nCino resells: both feed into nCino’s subscription costs and gross margin.

  • Fiserv competes with nCino to sell account-opening and lending technology to banks and credit unions. Its merchant-payments business makes overall results a less focused comparison; its banking-software news is more relevant to nCino.

  • NetSol Technologies and nCino compete to sell financial institutions software for originating loans, but NetSol focuses on asset finance and automotive leasing. Its Transcend Finance business is the closer comparison for nCino, rather than its software for vehicle sales.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Q2 Holdings Inc earningsQTWO

    Q2 Holdings' report will show how banks and credit unions are spending on digital banking and lending software, a market where it and nCino compete for the same buyers.

in 44 daysWed, Dec 2

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    nCino, Inc. earningsThis company

    Subscriptions make up most of nCino's revenue, and this report will show whether banks and credit unions are expanding platform use fast enough to grow that revenue while keeping its operating margin on track.