Stock daily read

What happened with MTCH today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

MTCH in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Match Group helps people meet through brands including Tinder, Hinge and Match. Its apps serve different preferences, from Tinder’s lower-pressure discovery to Hinge’s focus on purposeful relationships. Tinder contributes most of the company’s revenue, making it especially important to the business.

Many of its brands let people create and browse profiles for free. Users pay to unlock additional features, such as seeing who likes them on Tinder, mainly through recurring subscriptions. One-off purchases, such as temporarily promoting a profile, bring in less revenue, and advertising contributes only a small share. The business depends on maintaining active communities, retaining users and persuading them to pay while preserving a positive experience and confidence in safety.

Apple’s App Store and Google Play are central to mobile distribution and usually process in-app purchases, taking a meaningful share of those payments. Their rules also limit which services Match Group can distribute. Apple removed its video-chat app Azar after prohibiting random or anonymous chat apps. Azar remains available to existing Apple users and through Google Play and the web; Match Group is evaluating changes to seek reinstatement.

Read allShow less
Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in MTCH’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

MTCH says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Bumble Inc.’s Bumble and Badoo compete directly with Match Group’s Tinder and Hinge for dating users and their spending on premium subscriptions and in-app features. Watch Bumble’s subscription and in-app purchase revenue for signs of competition for paying daters: both companies let users start free and charge for extra features.

  • Grindr Inc. competes with Match Group’s dating brands for LGBTQ users who pay to see more profiles and get better discovery and connection features. Its revenue from user subscriptions and add-ons, rather than advertising, is the line to watch for competition over this group’s spending.

  • Meta Platforms’ free Facebook Dating competes with Match Group’s dating apps for daters and engagement, while marketers buying ads across Meta’s apps provide substantially all of Meta’s revenue. Watch Facebook Dating’s growth: Match Group says Facebook’s worldwide user base supports the feature and could draw users away from its apps.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Match Group, the Fed’s policy rate—the benchmark that guides borrowing costs—can affect what it pays to refinance its approximately $4.0 billion of debt or take on new borrowing.

in 13 daysMon, Nov 2

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Match Group, Inc earningsThis company

    Match Group earns mainly from subscriptions and in-app features, and this report will show whether Tinder and Hinge are growing through more paying users, not just more revenue per payer.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Bumble Inc. earningsBMBL

    Bumble Inc.’s report will show whether users keep paying for dating-app subscriptions and in-app features, the same spending Tinder and Hinge seek.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    Grindr Inc. earningsGRND

    Grindr Inc.’s report will show whether LGBTQ users keep paying for subscriptions and add-ons, spending that its dating brands and Match Group’s overlapping brands compete to attract.